> Being fair, the USA goes into this one with substantially lower nominal
> interest rates than were the case at the beginning of any of those
> recessions. Balance sheet gearing matters in prolonged real downturns,
but
> what sends people and firms into financial distress is cashflow.
But long rates have been drifting higher lately. What if the reason for it is that the bond market forsees a dollar depreciation? What if the dollar slowly slides for the next few years? Wouldn't that drive up long rates even further?
Seth