I didn't know what the Primakov Doctrine was, so I looked it up. For those who don't want to bother reading about it, it comes down to Russia developing tighter relations with its former southern crescent border and far east---Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and China, as hedge against the US. Below is the typical cold war take. It is worth reading since it explains (indirectly) what the latest all the US nuclear saber rattling is intended to confront, and possibly give a larger rational for expanding beyond the war in Afghanistan.
Chuck Grimes
ps. This didn't get posted the first time, probably because of the length, so its going out in two parts. ------------------------------------------------
The "Primakov Doctrine":
Russia's Zero-Sum Game
with the United States
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Senior Policy Analyst1
The Heritage Foundation
FYI No. 167
December 15, 1997
Russian Foreign Minister Evgenii Primakov is claiming credit for
calming Saddam Hussein during the recent Iraqi crisis. However,
Primakov's role in temporarily defusing the crisis should be seen
not as an exercise in diplomatic finesse, but as an important sign
of Russia's new post-Cold War foreign policy and as part of a
larger strategy to challenge America's leadership role in global
security.2
The purpose of this strategy is to build a Eurasian counterbalance
to the American-led Atlantic alliance by forging closer ties
between Russia, China, and potentially Iran. This goal was evident
in early 1996 when Primakov and his then-Iranian counterpart,
Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, issued a joint statement
describing the foreign military presence in the Persian Gulf as
"totally unacceptable."3 Moscow and Beijing already have come
together in what their leaders refer to as a "strategic
partnership"4 and would like Iran, and possibly India and France,
to join their efforts as well. The goal of Primakov's policy
obviously is to weaken U.S. influence in the Middle East and in
Eurasia, and to establish Russia in the Middle East as a power
equal to the United States. Under Primakov, Russia seems intent on
excluding the United States from influencing issues involving the
former Soviet area while strengthening China's position.
A partnership consisting of Russia, China, and Iran would be
dangerous for the United States and its allies. It could pose a
serious threat to stability in the Persian Gulf and the Taiwan
Strait. It could endanger the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to
the West if the extremist regimes in Iran or Iraq, with Russia's
encouragement, were to break out of their international isolation
and pursue aggressive policies toward their neighbors. Such a
strategy, which can be called "the Primakov doctrine," could
increase instability throughout Europe and Asia and entangle the
United States in regional conflicts in Eurasia. In short, it would
turn Russia's relations with the United States into a zero-sum
game.
THE SPY WHO CAME IN FROM THE COLD WAR
The roots of this strategy go back to the Cold War, which gave
birth to shrewd foreign policy operators such as Russia's current
foreign minister, Evgenii Primakov. Primakov was the
quintessential Soviet establishment insider. He was born in Kiev
in 1929. In the 1950s, while working for the Russian broadcasting
authority, he was trained by the Soviet KGB as an Oriental scholar
and speaker of Arabic and English.5 In the 1960s, he rose to the
position of head of the Arabic broadcasting service of Radio
Moscow. In 1962, he began working for the International Department
of the Central Committee of the USSR Communist Party as a senior
commentator and Pravda correspondent in the Middle East.6 He
became the expert on the Middle East for Leonid Brezhnev's
government.
Primakov played an important role in the 1970s and 1980s in
formulating the Soviet Union's policy in the Middle East and South
Asia. He authored the Communist Party's most authoritative
ideological justification for the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. In
his writings, he has lamented the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war as a
diversion from the struggle against imperialism and the United
States, while calling for the Palestine Liberation Organization
(PLO) to overcome its internal differences in order to pursue its
struggle against Israel. Primakov has befriended and supported
Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Hafez al-Assad of Syria, Muammar Qaddafi
of Libya, and Yasser Arafatæleaders of the anti-American camp in
the Middle East. He maintains close personal relations with these
leaders to this day.
After serving as director of two prestigious government think
tanks, the Institute of Oriental Studies and the Institute of
International Economics and Foreign Relations, Primakov became
chairman of the upper house of the USSR Supreme Soviet in 1989. In
September of that year, he became a Candidate Member of the Soviet
Politburo.
In late 1990 and January 1991, as special advisor to Mikhail
Gorbachev, Primakov undertook two last-minute missions to prevent
the Gulf War. He sought a resolution that would allow Iraq to
retain occupied Kuwait while preventing the United States from
using force against Saddam. These missions were designed to
undermine then-Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, who
had pursued a policy of cooperation with the U.S.-led coalition.
In September 1991, Primakov became the last chief of the First
Main Directorate (foreign intelligence division) of the KGB and
First Deputy to the Chairman of the KGB. In late 1991, he served
as head of the Central Intelligence Service, which in December
1991 became known as the Foreign Intelligence Service of the
Russian Federation (SVRR). Thus, Primakov supervised the seamless
transition of that service from Soviet to Russian control. In this
capacity, he was in charge of supervising major Russian
intelligence spies in the United States, such as the Central
Intelligence Agency's former counterintelligence chief Aldrich
Ames.
During 1991 and 1992, a parliamentary investigation of organized
mass theft of property and financial fraud estimated that billions
of dollars had been illegally laundered and held abroad in bank
accounts for Communist Party and KGB officials. Lawmakers
concluded that all detailed records rested with the Foreign
Intelligence Service and other agencies, and they called on
Yeltsin to instruct Primakov's agency to cooperate and track down
the funds. Primakov, however, asked Supreme Soviet Chairman Ruslan
Khasbulatov to shut down the investigative commission, and
Khasbulatov complied.7
When Yeltsin fired his first foreign minister, Andrey Kozyrev, in
December 1995, Primakov assumed the position.8 Unlike his
predecessor, Primakov managed to consolidate institutional support
from the Moscow-based bureaucracy, the Duma, the armed forces, and
the media. Russians of all political stripes uniformly praise him
as a professional, a tough negotiator, and an outstanding
bureaucratic infighter. Duma deputies from the Communist and
nationalist opposition who loathed the allegedly pro-Western
Kozyrev were pleased with his nomination. Deputies from Yabloko,
the social democrat opposition led by Grigory Yavlinsky,9 and from
the center-right parties also lauded him.
Primakov is a realist and a flexible tactician in pursuit of
Russia's strategic goals, skilled in dealing with setbacks. For
example, he was able to put a positive spin on Russia's Founding
Agreement with NATO which paved the way for the alliance's
enlargement; and he praised development of energy resources in the
Caspian Sea area by multinational oil and gas companies-something
Russia had opposed in the past. For many in the Russian power
elite, Primakov articulates the country's yearning for recognition
as a great power, even after the collapse of the USSR, as well as
its widespread resentment of the United States, which many in
Moscow see as the winner of the Cold War. Such bitterness may prod
Russia, through Primakov, to challenge America's interests and
allies and to attempt to create hostile coalitions.
PRIMAKOV'S VIEW: A BRAVE NEW MULTIPOLAR WORLD
According to various staff members of the foreign ministry in
Moscow, Primakov views Russia's international role as preventing a
monopolar world dominated by a single superpower.10 In speeches,
articles, and press conferences, he states incessantly that the
post-Cold War world is developing along several poles, or focal
points, which include the United States, Russia (with CIS
countries), the European Union, China, Japan, the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Latin America.11 Primakov's
world view has no place for a single superpower, despite the
current dominant status of the United States.
By promoting this multipolar model, Primakov is attempting to
dilute American international power. His version of multipolarity
also provides cover for a Russian-Chinese strategic partnership
which may welcome the Islamic Republic of Iran as a junior
partner. Such a coalition could challenge the United States in two
vital regions: the Persian Gulf and the Taiwan Strait. In
addition, Primakov wants an exclusive Russian sphere of influence
in the Caucasus and Central Asia. He claims that CIS countries
must integrate with Russia; he supports union with Belarus; and he
advocates Russia's use of force in the former Soviet region.
The China Connection. Since 1991, the Russian military-industrial
complex has been selling China its most advanced weapons,
including ballistic missile systems, nuclear weapons technologies,
and modern aircraft, at a cost of at least $2 billion per year.
China's military modernization program is aimed primarily at
establishing control over the Taiwan Strait. It may also be
designed to challenge Taiwan militarily in just a few years. Such
a scenario, which would hinder the ability of the United States to
project power and influence in Asia, would be advantageous to
Russia under the premises of the Primakov doctrine. The leaders of
Russia and China are calling their relationship a "strategic
partnership for the 21st century."
Evgenii of Arabia. Primakov is also working to strengthen
America's foes and weaken its allies in the Middle East. He is
personally leading Russia's rapprochement with Tehran and is
supporting involvement by the Russian natural gas monopoly
Gazpromætogether with the French company Total-in developing gas
fields and pipelines in Iran. He approves of legitimate civilian
nuclear cooperation between Russia and Iran while flatly denying
that Russia is supplying nuclear weapons technology, ballistic
missile systems, or other modern weapons to the ayatollahsædespite
ample evidence from intelligence sources to the contrary.12
In the most recent crisis involving Iraq, Primakov put together a
coalition in the U.N. Security Council, which included Russia,
China, and France, to oppose the use of force by the United States
against Saddam Hussein. He promised Saddam that he would work for
the lifting of sanctions and even demanded that Iraq's
self-proclaimed "progress" in complying with U.N. decisions be
recognized.13
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