Second, what NK is suggesting (and SHE IS RIGHT) is that ALL OF THE ARGENTENIANS WHO NOW ARE GETTING part of their salries in local (provincial) currency WILL NOT BE PAID IN ANY CURRENCY AT ALL IF IMF'S RECOMMENDATIONS ARE FOLLOWED, AND THAT WILL BE WORST THAT A POTENTIAL HYPERINFLATION, DONT YOU THINK?
Of course if you have someone like former Pres. Menem telling everyone and at everymoment that hyperinflation is around the corner....then you may have a few points of inflation.
Brad, would you consider likely a hyperinflation scenario in today's Argentina??? 80% excess capacity, depressed salaries, no money around, no markets for exports, no investment......where is the dumb inflation going to come from ?? just speculation??? Some industries are augmenting production instead of prices, oil industries are in battle with President Duahlde to increase gas prices due to devaluation....that is pure specualtion. So I dont see hyperinflation (rising prices more than 15% montly during 1 year or more) around the corner....
We need to go beyond pure Economics here..It does not take much of my imagination to imagine a different country.......
Bradford DeLong wrote:
> >'IMF Go To Hell'
> >The people of Argentina have tried the<BR>
> >IMF approach; now they want it their way
> >NAOMI KLEIN
> >
> >...What does the IMF, in town to set conditions for releasing $9-billion in
> >promised funds, have to do with the fate of these people? Well, here in
> >a country where half the population now lives below the poverty line,
> >it's hard to find a single sector of society whose fate does not somehow
> >hinge on the decisions made by the international lender.
> >
> >Librarians, teachers and other public sector workers, who have been
> >getting paid in hastily-printed provincial currencies (sort of
> >government IOUs), won't get paid at all if the provinces agree to IMF
> >demands to stop printing this money. And if deeper cuts are made to the
> >public sector, as the IMF also is insisting, unemployed workers who
> >account for between 20 and 30 per cent of the population, will have even
> >less protection from the homelessness and hunger that has led tens of
> >thousands to storm supermarkets demanding food...
>
> If you have eight different provinces each printing money that
> circulates throughout the country, each province will print a hell of
> a lot of money--the real resources to pay the librarians, teachers,
> and other public sector workers come from reducing the value of money
> balances in the hands of the rest of Argentina's citizens, and so
> printing money is a way for each province to fund its spending by
> taxing others' citizens.
>
> Seems to me that what Naomi Klein is calling for is an immediate
> hyperinflation in Argentina. Does she know it?
>
> Brad DeLong
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