On Sat, 23 Mar 2002, Doug Henwood wrote:
> Miles Jackson wrote:
>
> >I read Deffeyes' Hubbert's Peak a few months ago. I thought he made a
> >pretty good case for the peak in world oil production occurring within
> >the next decade, and decreasing inexorably after that. I know arguments
> >from authority aren't absolutely convincing, but this guy is a geologist
> >who makes a living finding oil. What's wrong with his analysis?
>
> People have been saying this stuff for years, and it hasn't yet come
> to pass. It probably will, but the marginal product of the latest
> version doesn't seem too high. Haven't read the book though.
>
> Doug
>
It's an interesting read. The guy's not a "sky is falling" doomsayer; he's a geologist, and the "Hubbert model" he uses to estimate world oil production very effectively fits the historical data for U. S. oil production. I know that isn't definitive proof the model will accurately predict world oil production levels, but the guy's not pulling numbers out of his ass.
Miles