Hi. I asked a professional Indian economist whether he thought the 7.1 percent growth in the agricultural sector for the third quarter (October to December) of 2001-02 was real growth. The short answer is yes, it appears to be real growth. If you want the more detailed answer, please see below.
The stats that were cited come from advance estimates released by the CSO (Central Statistics Organisation), which relies on raw figures from the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. See:
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2002/rmar2002/28032002/r280320028.html
These estimates are based on Advance Estimates of agriculture production and partial information available on various sectors of the economy for part of the year, as the fiscal year is not over when the Advance Estimates are released. The Advance Estimates are compiled by extrapolating the previous year's Quick Estimates with the growth rates observed in each of the physical indicators of various sectors, for a certain part of the year. To this extent, the current year's growth rates stated in the Advance Estimates are more or less independent of the previous year's levels of estimates. The CSO has been releasing Advance Estimates since 1992-93. There does not appear to be any reason to doubt the Advance Statistics so far (but these figures are usually revised -- down -- some time after 8-10 months).
If you don't want to wait for the revisions, the stats can be partially confirmed through an examination of the rainfall data of October to December 2001. Note also that the farm sector grew by 2.3% and 3.4% over the previous year in the first two quarters of 2001-02 (at 1993 prices) before really taking off.
If you would like more detailed information on the methodology used by the Indian government for calculating advance estimates of national income, I would suggest a look at:
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2002/rfeb2002/05022002/r050220021.html
IMHO, the "real" growth story appears to be in the financial sector, which is growing at double digits compared to the previous year at constant prices.
Best,
Vikash Yadav Philadelphia, PA
-----Original Message----- From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Doug Henwood Sent: Thursday, March 28, 2002 11:15 AM To: lbo-talk Subject: Indian GDP
Any comments on this? Is this real growth or hothouse growth?
At 9:33 AM -0500 3/28/02, The Dismal Scientist wrote:
>GDP for India (6.3%)
>
>The Indian economy grew by a spectacular 6.3% in the third quarter
>of 2001-2002, besting analyst expectations. Strong growth in the
>agricultural sector provided much of the strength, even as
>manufacturing activity remained lackluster. India will remain among
>the faster growing economies in the coming year, barring major
>political or military activity.