Russia, Ukraine, CIS

ChrisD(RJ) chrisd at russiajournal.com
Fri Mar 29 01:03:24 PST 2002


In the next 50 years? Very very low. What you're going to have, I think, is increasing attraction toward the Union Center, i.e., Moscow, and probably increasing economic cooperation between the various republics, especially the Western ones -- Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova -- most of which exist at present basically as transit toutes for Russian raw materials westward (Ukraine is also fond of stealing Russian gas transiting through it toward Europe, which has caused a lot of strife between Moscow and Kiev). They practically live off customs duties. Close economic cooperation is in everyone's interest, and actually probably the only way a country like Georgia or Armenia, both of which have lost nearly half their population in the last decade, to stay in existence very much longer.

In 50 to 100 years, maybe. General societal attitudes are certainly favorable for it, but society is so polzarized at present it's hard to imagine how it could happen in the short term. What's important at this point is stopping the downward slide and ensuring stability. You have to take a long-term view of the situation.

Moldova, which as you know used to be the center for winemaking in the Soviet Union, now has as its most profitable export its .md Internet suffix, which it leases to American medical companies. Everytime I read some editorial in the NY Times or whatnot celebrating the collapse of the USSR as some great victory for capitalism and democracy, I just wanna puke. These writers should try acrually living IN the FSU.

Of course Estonia is doing great. That's some consolation.

Chris Doss The Russia Journal ----------------------------

What do you think are the chances for the reunification of a socialist federation east of Germany?

Joanna



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