Russia, Ukraine, CIS

[ChrisD(RJ)]

In the next 50 years? Very very low. What you're going to have, I think, is
increasing attraction toward the Union Center, i.e., Moscow, and probably
increasing economic cooperation between the various republics, especially
the Western ones -- Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova -- most of which
exist at present basically as transit toutes for Russian raw materials
westward (Ukraine is also fond of stealing Russian gas transiting through it
toward Europe, which has caused a lot of strife between Moscow and Kiev).
They practically live off customs duties. Close economic cooperation is in
everyone's interest, and actually probably the only way a country like
Georgia or Armenia, both of which have lost nearly half their population in
the last decade, to stay in existence very much longer.

In 50 to 100 years, maybe. General societal attitudes are certainly
favorable for it, but society is so polzarized at present it's hard to
imagine how it could happen in the short term. What's important at this
point is stopping the downward slide and ensuring stability. You have to
take a long-term view of the situation.

Moldova, which as you know used to be the center for winemaking in the
Soviet Union, now has as its most profitable export its .md Internet suffix,
which it leases to American medical companies. Everytime I read some
editorial in the NY Times or whatnot celebrating the collapse of the USSR as
some great victory for capitalism and democracy, I just wanna puke. These
writers should try acrually living IN the FSU.

Of course Estonia is doing great. That's some consolation.

Chris Doss
The Russia Journal
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What do you think are the chances for the reunification of a socialist 
federation east of Germany?

Joanna