[This is a very nice summary of the current Iraqi Kurdish situation, with lots of interesting little facts. For example, I didn't realize the capital of the PUK (the Iranian supported group) area was outside the no-fly zone. Nor that they played soccer against Iraqi teams in Baghdad. I don't think Israel has even managed that with neighbors with which it is formally at peace. The middle east, what a place.]
Financial Times
May 14, 2002
BACK PAGE - FIRST SECTION: Iraqi Kurds treat Bush plans for Saddam with suspicion: Rivals are wary of US calls to unite, says Guy Dinmore in northern Iraq:
By GUY DINMORE
Under the shadow of Saddam Hussein's artillery and tanks, rival Kurdish leaders ruling northern Iraq are coming under increasing pressure from the US to end their often violent feuding and unite in preparation for an eventual US-led assault against the Baghdad regime.
The two main factions, the Kurdish Democratic party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), insist they have no idea when or how the US will launch its military campaign. They believe Washington has agreed in principle that the goal is to establish a federal and democratic state recognising Kurdish autonomy, rather than replace Mr Saddam with another, this time pro-western, dictator. But they are nervous about what the US may attempt.
"We cannot be expected to be dragged into a half-baked adventure without a clear outcome," Barham Saleh, prime minister of the PUK regional government, told the FT.
The stakes are high. Western officials say Mr Saddam has launched a military build-up in the north, reinforcing tanks that could move into the PUK capital of Sulaimani and the KDP stronghold of Arbil within an hour. The US military last month said Baghdad had also moved more anti-aircraft batteries north of the 36th parallel that marks the boundary of the no-fly zone established by the US and its allies in 1991.
Most PUK-held territory, including Sulaimani, lies outside the no-fly zone. For this reason both factions are anxious to stress that they are not committed to any US scheme and no military preparations are under way.
The Kurds are suspicious of US intentions, feeling they have been betrayed at least twice before. In March 1991, shortly after US-led forces drove Iraqi troops from Kuwait, then president George Bush exhorted the Iraqi people to "get rid of Saddam". The Kurds rose in revolt, but no help came. Iraqi forces drove 2m refugees into Turkey and Iran and destroyed hundreds of villages.
In 1996 Iraqi forces advanced again with impunity, this time invited by the KDP to strike back at the Iranian-backed PUK, which was driven out of Arbil.
"Nothing imminent is on the horizon, but the confrontation is growing," said Mr Saleh. "We are cautious. Iraqi tanks are less than an hour away. We cannot take unnecessary risks. This is not an intellectual exercise, but one of life and death. We want to see the blueprint before we commit ourselves."
Nonetheless, talks held with US officials in Germany between KDP leader Masoud Barzani and PUK leader Jalal Talabani, their first meeting in 16 months, appear to have made progress. Both sides described them as positive.
The meeting followed two recent visits to northern Iraq by Ryan Crocker, US assistant secretary of state.
"The US has promised that our people would not face another catastrophe," commented Jawher Namak, a senior KDP politburo member. "But we do not have complete guarantees. To what extent President Bush is serious about the future I don't know."
The two Kurdish strongmen agreed in Germany that the KDP and PUK would reopen offices in each other's capitals. They also discussed reuniting the two administrations, reconvening parliament and holding elections within the next nine months.
Their territory is carved into two distinct areas with their own governments and armies, but people and commerce can move between them.
A degree of co-existence has been established with the rest of Iraq under the control of Mr Saddam, who sells oil and electricity to the north while receiving water for free. Kurds with no political affiliation travel regularly to the rest of Iraq, for trade and medical treatment. This weekend Arbil's football team played in Baghdad as part of the national league.
The KDP and PUK have developed civil administrations and fostered a moderate amount of political freedom, especially in the media. Islamic parties exist, but women can choose whether to observe Islamic dress code and alcohol is widely sold. Despite a general sense of insecurity - many people have suitcases packed, ready for instant flight - there is also substantial investment in the region in construction and telecommunications.
For the Kurds, the most important territorial objective is to gain control of Kirkuk, historically a Kurdish city but one that Kurds allege is still being ethnically cleansed by the Baghdad regime. The Kirkuk area, Kurds say, also holds 60 per cent of Iraq's oil reserves.
"What Kurd can dare say I give up on Kirkuk," declared Sami Abdul- Rahman, KDP deputy prime minister. "It would be like the Palestinians giving up on Jerusalem."
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 1995-2002