>ODJ DJ. Fed's McTeer: Jobless Rate A Lagging Indicator
McTeer actually said "employment is a lagging indicator." Lots of people say this, but it just isn't true. On average, employment bottoms out in the month of the business cycle trough (which isn't that much of a surprise - employment is one of the indicators the NBER uses to date cycles). Ditto unemployment, though it's a little stickier, since signs of an improving economy bring people into the job market.
Doug