On Tue, 5 Nov 2002, Reed Tryte wrote:
> > Out of curiousity, do you have any cites for
> > Glaspie's exchange?
>
> [most important part at end]
>
> Copyright 1990 The New York Times Company
> The New York Times
> September 23, 1990,
I'm sorry, I should have been more specific -- I meant any cites for the idea that she regarded slant-drilling as the central issue.
Fwiw, btw, I don't consider this famous transcript to be evidence of a green light. On the contray. The way I interpret that last exchange is as follows. Glaspie specifically put off going to the US because she wanted to make sure that Iraq would enter into negotiations with Kuwait. Here, after a half hour telephone call with Mubarak, Saddam says that he told Mubarak the Kuwaitis don't have to worry -- he will not do anything without talking to them first. And so long as there are signs of hope, then it will all be settled peacefully. But if not .... And Glaspie says Good, that's settled, you're entering into negotiations, I'm glad to hear it. I was putting off my trip to make sure you would, and now I can go, that's good news. She's saying essentially, Negotiations take time, so I can go safely, because we're not at a crisis point. But Saddam was basically lying. He didn't really negotiate, he fake negotiated, broke them off after two days despite their being cordial and invaded. If Glaspie claims she was misled here I think that's a fair claim. I certainly don't see Saddam saying I'm gonna invade and Glaspie saying Fine by us. And fwiw, Saddam himself said of this exchange he never told Glaspie he was going to invade.
But I don't this is the whole of their exchanges either. For one thing, they both refer to memos which they have before them which itemize all the various parts of Iraq's complaint. Presumably it plays some role in their communications. Saddam referred to it in his later interview.
I actually think the thing that most supports the position Brad and Curtiss were taking, that Glaspie expected him to take the land being used for slant drilling, and maybe the disputed islands, but no more, is contained in the one and only interview Glaspie gave after coming home, on September 12, 1990 (a week before these transcript excerpts were published -- and btw, the NYT printed a longer and corrected version on September 30), to Elaine Sciolino of the NYT. There she said "Obviously I didn't think -- and nobody else did -- that the Iraqis were going to take all of Kuwait. Every Kuwaiti and Saudi, every analyst in the Western world was wrong, too. That does not excuse me. But people who now claim that all was clear were not heard from at the time."
That very strongly suggests that she *did* think -- and she knew other people who thought -- that the Iraqis were going to take *part* of Kuwait. But again, there was no mention of slant drilling being the issue, or of her making any communication on the subject to the Iraqis. It's certainly plausible, though.
Michael