THE TIMES POLL Insider Backing for Gore Is Tepid
Nearly half of the Democrats surveyed say he shouldn't run again for president. Sen. Kerry and Vermont Gov. Dean find support.
By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer
As the Democratic Party regroups from the disappointing midterm elections and begins searching for a presidential nominee, a Los Angeles Times Poll shows that nearly half of party insiders believe former Vice President Al Gore should sit out the 2004 race.
The poll, which surveyed roughly three-quarters of the membership of the Democratic National Committee, suggests that the contest is wide open and that there is a hunger for change. While 35% of respondents said Gore should run again, 48% said he should not and 17% were undecided.
The poll turned up significant backing for Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry and surprising support for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, the Democrats' leader in the House since 1989, did not fare as well as Kerry or a second national newcomer, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, the Democrats' vice presidential nominee in 2000, and California Gov. Gray Davis, leader of the nation's most populous state, also were viewed with less enthusiasm. Fresh off his tight reelection win, Davis was one of the least popular of 10 possible candidates tested.
The poll found great affection for former President Clinton -- viewed favorably by 96% of respondents -- but also a recognition of his polarizing effect among voters at large. More than half of those sampled said Clinton should restrict his campaigning on behalf of the party's 2004 nominee to a few selected states.
Assessing this month's midterm elections, 43% said the result -- a Republican-led Congress -- would make it easier for Democrats to regain the White House in 2004.
"If things go wrong, Republicans really have nobody else to blame," said Ron Oliver, chairman of the Arkansas Democratic Party. Three in 10 said the midterm results would make Democrats' task more difficult, and the rest said the outcome would make no difference.
The DNC consists of roughly 450 local and state party leaders who make up the governing body of the national party.
Although members' views do not reflect those of the public at large, their opinions could have a significant effect on which candidate emerges as the Democrat to face President Bush in his expected reelection bid.
"The first primary is among the insiders. It's organizers, it's fund-raisers, it's these players," said Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan campaign analyst in Washington. "These are the people you need to line up long before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. These are the people that form the nucleus of your campaign in each of the 50 states."
The Times Poll, concluded Thursday, found no clear-cut favorite in the prospective Democratic field. Asked who they would like to see as the party's 2004 nominee, just about half the party leaders surveyed, 46%, had no preference. Gore's name was volunteered by 13% and Kerry's by 10%.
After they were read a list of 10 prospective candidates, 19% of respondents named Gore as their favorite; 11% still had no preference. Kerry was cited by 18%, Edwards by 13% and Gephardt by 10%. Six other possible candidates were in single digits, including Lieberman at 4%.
Asked their second choice, 18% chose Kerry and a like number picked Edwards; 12% chose Gore, 11% Dean, and 10% Gephardt. And 12% had no second choice.
The survey found considerable ambivalence about Gore, who won the popular vote in the 2000 presidential election but lost the White House. The former vice president, who last week launched a series of high-profile appearances, said he will reveal his plans for 2004 by the end of this year.
Asked who they believed would be the strongest candidate against Bush -- regardless of their personal preferences -- more than 25% of respondents cited no one in particular. Just about two in 10 picked Gore. Kerry was named by 16% and Edwards by 13%. No other candidate polled in double digits.
Seeking New Faces
"It looks like a party that's desperately seeking fresh faces," said Cook, referring to the relative strength of Kerry, Edwards and Dean compared with Gephardt, Lieberman and Gore, all of whom have experience on the national stage. "You'd think most people wouldn't know Howard Dean if he kicked them in the shins."
The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 312 of 388 selected DNC members. Those who ordinarily stay neutral until the party's nomination is settled -- such as the party's executive leadership -- as well as committee members living abroad were not contacted for the survey. Interviews were conducted by telephone Nov. 7 and 8 and Monday through Thursday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Among those ready to support Gore, for now at least, was Mary Botkin, a DNC member from Oregon. "I think he had the presidency stolen from him and I think he deserves the opportunity to do it again, to see if he can get it," Botkin said in a follow-up interview. "The Supreme Court elected this president, not the people of the country."
In all, 53% blamed Gore's failure to capture the White House on circumstances beyond his control, including the Florida election recount and the 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision that effectively awarded the state's electoral votes to Bush, which made him president.
Few Blame Gore
Only about three in 10 blamed Gore's defeat on the weakness of his campaign or his shortcomings as a candidate.
Much of the support for the ex-vice president could best be described as a sympathy vote. When asked why they backed Gore, the main reason cited was "because he was cheated" of the presidency. Other reasons frequently mentioned were his experience, his understanding of issues and a sense that he shared the committee member's values.
That said, many thought Gore already has had his best shot at the White House and that now the party needs to move on.
Ben Johnson, who lives in Washington and served in the Clinton administration, confessed to mixed feelings about Gore. While sympathetic to the view that the former vice president "was robbed of the presidency," Johnson said, "The opposition did such a tremendous job of really tarnishing Gore, he may not be the best soldier to put on the field. I have a lot of respect and admiration for him, but if we're talking about winning, I think Kerry would be the one.... He would come in with a clean slate."
The Massachusetts senator has all but officially announced his candidacy after months of traveling the country to lay the groundwork.
Asked why they backed Kerry, the most common response among his supporters was his understanding of the issues. Also frequently mentioned were his charisma, a sense that he shares his supporters' values and a belief that he could beat Bush.
Edwards' supporters most often cited his relatively recent arrival on the national scene. Additionally, he too was considered be a strong candidate with personal charisma, and one who shares the values of North Carolinians.
The Arkansas party's Oliver, for one, believes the Democratic Party needs to look South to have a chance of beating Bush. "Our candidate has to be capable of winning at least one or two Southern states," the Edwards backer said. "Philosophically, there are some differences down here ... and I think he has a better understanding of that."
Lieberman essentially has been campaigning since the last presidential election was settled. But he has said that he would not run if Gore, who picked him as his running mate, decides to make another try.
Asked whether Lieberman should stick to that self-imposed pledge, seven in 10 said he should keep his word, while 22% said Lieberman should feel free to run regardless of what Gore decides.
Lieberman is arguably the most conservative candidate in the Democratic field, and his poor showing among party insiders may be explained by their leftward tilt. Slightly more than half the DNC members surveyed -- 53% -- described themselves as either very or somewhat liberal, compared with 45% who said they were middle-of-the-road or conservative.
Still, Lieberman was seen overall in a positive light, with 75% of respondents viewing him favorably compared with 21% who viewed him unfavorably. Most of the rest of the field was equally well regarded, with the prospective candidates generally enjoying favorable ratings in the 70% to mid-80% range.
There were, however, three exceptions. Dean, who has been aggressively stumping for months, was viewed favorably by 49%, but nearly as many respondents -- 45% -- said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion.
Davis, who survived a rocky first term as California governor to win reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin, was viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 38%.
Jonathan Postal, a national committee member from Colorado, was troubled by Davis' aggressive fund-raising during his reelection effort and was unimpressed by his handling of California's electricity crisis. "He didn't resonate with me as quite the inspirational leader we need to take us in a new direction," said Postal, who is otherwise neutral in the presidential race.
The Rev. Al Sharpton, who has said he plans to run for president, received an overwhelmingly negative response from party insiders.
Just 16% had a positive impression, with 66% expressing negative views of the African American activist. When asked whether there was any one candidate they would refuse to support, three in 10 mentioned Sharpton -- by far the greatest number of any prospective candidate. Asked why, most said he was "too inflammatory." Other reasons given were a lack of credibility as a candidate and a perceived failure to reflect mainstream Democratic values.
In contrast to those sharply negative views, there was nearly universal affection for Clinton.
Among the 96% who viewed the former president favorably, nearly eight in 10 viewed him very favorably.
But party insiders also recognized that Clinton is still a political weapon best deployed selectively. Gore kept his distance from his boss during the 2000 campaign, and a debate still rages within the Democratic Party over the wisdom of that decision.
Although the first of the 2004 contests in Iowa and New Hampshire are more than a year off, the race has effectively begun with candidates recruiting staff members and preparing for a spate of formal announcements expected to begin over the next few months.
Looking ahead, 36% of DNC members interviewed said Clinton should be sent to campaign in any state he is willing to visit. But slightly more than half -- 52% -- said Clinton should be dispatched only to a few selected states where his support for the Democratic nominee is most likely to outweigh any backlash. Only 5% said he should not campaign at all.
"I would send him to states where Democrats need to build up their base vote, particularly the African American vote," said Sue Lovell, a Democratic committee member from Texas. She suggested Clinton would be best used selectively, given the way he also incites passion among Republicans.
"He motivates them in a way we don't want them motivated," Lovell said. "We have to keep him out of those areas where people would be motivated to go vote against anything they thought he was for."
------- Associate Poll Director Jill Darling Richardson and Data Management Supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this report.