Financial Times; Nov 28, 2002
ASIA-PACIFIC: Girls' deaths spur anger against US in SKorea
By Andrew Ward
A coffee shop close to Seoul's city hall displayed an uncompromising message on its door this week: "Americans not welcome."
The sign reflected a surge of anti-American sentiment in South Korea since two schoolgirls were run down and killed by a 45-ton US armoured vehicle on a narrow country road last June. Anger intensified this month when a US military jury cleared the driver and navigator of blame after Washington refused Seoul's request that the soldiers be tried in a South Korean court.
South Korea's ministry of justice expressed "deep regret" at the acquittal, threatening to elevate street-level protests into a full-blown diplomatic row.
President George W. Bush apologised yesterday for the accident, in an attempt to prevent further damage to Washington's strategically important alliance with Seoul. However, violent demonstrations continued to flare outside US army bases around the country.
While the death of two teenage girls is the catalyst for people's anger, the incident has caused wider resentment against US influence in South Korea, including the presence of 37,000 troops. "The US should take note that the Korean people's thinking is changing towards independence and self-determination," said Hankyoreh, a Seoul newspaper.
The outbreak of anti-Americanism in South Korea is the latest sign around the world that what is seen as Mr Bush's aggressive foreign policy is stirring resentment against the sole superpower. However, hostility towards the US could have deeper implications if it threatens the 57-year-old alliance between Seoul and Washington, which helps to maintain a balance of power in north-east Asia.
US troops in South Korea serve as a deterrent against communist North Korea and limit China's influence. Relations between Seoul and Washington were already under strain before the accident, as the pair struggled to reconcile contrasting policies towards North Korea.
Mr Bush's hardline stance towards Pyongyang has undermined Seoul's engagement policy. Any further erosion of the alliance could make it difficult for Washington to secure Seoul's support in its efforts to halt North Korea's self-confessed nuclear weapons programme.
Some analysts believe that souring relations could be the start of a shift in Seoul's loyalties away from the US towards China. South Korean exports to China have exceeded those to the US for the first time this year, reducing economic dependence on North America.
"As economic ties grow between Korea and China, closer political ties will automatically follow," says a European diplomat. "That will pose a threat to US influence not only in Korea but in the wider region."
US and South Korean officials both dismiss talk of their alliance disintegrating. Anti- Americanism on the streets of Seoul is not new, they say. South Koreans have long resented their dependence on the US and remain bitter at Washington's support for the military dictators who ruled the country until 1987.
But with North Korea's million-strong army casting a shadow across the border, most South Koreans reluctantly accept the need for US forces on the peninsula. On its own, the South's military capabilities are only about 70 per cent of the North's. But when combined with US forces, South Korea is about 25 per cent stronger.
A growing chorus of radical voices is, however, questioning the principle of US deterrence. They argue that US forces increase tensions by antagonising the North. Left alone to resolve their differences, they say, the two Koreas would make a peaceful reconciliation.
Next month's presidential election in South Korea could determine the future of the alliance. Roh Moo-hyun, the liberal ruling party candidate, is running neck-and-neck with Lee Hoi-chang, of the conservative opposition.
Mr Lee would strengthen relations with Washington and support Mr Bush's tough policies towards North Korea. Mr Roh, in contrast, pledges to continue Seoul's sympathetic approach towards the North and boasts of never having visited the US.
If Mr Lee is elected, Seoul's relations with Washington will be nursed back to health. But if Mr Roh wins on December 19, this year's decline in one of the world's strongest military alliances could be terminal.