A new Korean War?

Ulhas Joglekar uvj at vsnl.com
Fri Oct 18 00:00:05 PDT 2002


Jim Farmelant wrote:


> If North Korea has the bomb, that ultimately has to
> impact the US strategic policy in regards to Korea,
> (the US having many thousands of troops stationed
> in South Korea) as well as Japan, since this means
> that North Korea may well be on the way to fashioning
> an effective deterrent to attacks by US forces.

US believes in the First Strike doctrine. Effective deterrence to the US requires credible Second Strike capability. Does North Korea possess credible Second Strike capability?

North Korea has suspended nuclear weapons and missile programme in return for the US supplying two nuclear reactors to North Korea for electricity generation at a cost $ 4.5 bn.


> That in turn, should over the long run give encouragement
> to other small countries for acquiring their own nuclear
> weapons as well, as a deterrent against attack by the
> number one "rogue state" - namely the United States

Which small countries can acquire nuclear weapons? Almost all countries are signatories to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (exceptions are North Korea, India, Pakistan and Israel). NPT allows only P-5 states to have nuclear weapons. How any small country can acquire nuclear weapons, if it's a signatory to NPT without inviting the use of force/sanctions by P-5 countries? India and Pakistan were subjected to sanctions when they were not even signatories to the NPT. One can imagine the consequences of NPT signatories trying acquiring nuclear weapons.

Ulhas



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