Civilization will expire in 2030?

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

> 
> http://www.energycrisis.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm
> The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge
> 
> The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, 
> absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating. I 
> offer it, however, as an inductive theory based on world 
> energy and population data and on what I've seen during the 
> past 30 years in some 50 nations on all continents except 
> Antarctica. It is also based on my experience in electrical 
> engineering and energy management systems, my hobbies of 
> anthropology and archaeology, and a lifetime of reading in 
> various fields.
> 
> The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production 
> (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The 
> theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of 
> Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

Sounds like numerology to me.  The guy seems to be preoccupied with the
numerator while forgetting the denominator.  The history teaches that if
resources become scarce (as evidenced by the resource/population ratio)
it is the population that usually gives if new resources are not found.
If we face a resource shortage crisis (as it was usually the case in the
medieval Europe) and cannot get rid of excess population through
emigration (again as it used to be the case of Europe) we will likely
see attampts to halt the population growth by reducing birth rates (as
seen in China today), by exterminating the excess population, or by
compartmentalizing the scarce resource availablity (e.g. some will have
access to them all, whole others will have none) - which by and large
seems the most plausible solution.

Wojtek