> I am wondering how long the NPT will last. I wouldn't at all
> be surpised if in the future it becomes increasingly viewed
> in much of the world as a relic of the Cold War era (when
> the two superpowers had a shared interest in limiting
> proliferation).
On the contrary. Many countries have signed the NPT after the end of the Cold War. They include China, France and Brazil. As of March 2002, the Treaty had 187 signatories. Cuba, India, Pakistan and Israel were not part of the NPT. Looks as if North Korea is a party to the NPT. The NPT is in force indefinitely, though there is a five year review process.
> If the North Koreans are seen as being able
> to get away with having resumed their nuclear weapons
> programs, others will be encouraged to follow in their footsteps.
> Remeber too, the sanctions against Pakistan were lifted right
> after 9-11(and Pakistan is being blamed right now for having
> aided the North Koreans). The repercussions for other countries
> breaking the NPT may turn not to be so bad. And if North Korea
> is seen as gaining leverage in its relations with the US and
> the other major powers, that too is going to encourage other
> small countries to follow suit.
Which ones? Iraq and Iran are already part of "the axis of evil". South East Asia has been declared a nuclear weapons free zone. So Vietnam is ruled out. South Africa gave up the nuclear programme just before the end of apartheid.
Who could follow North Korea? Libya?
Ulhas