-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Ulhas Joglekar Enviada em: sexta-feira, 18 de outubro de 2002 21:47 Para: lbo-talk Assunto: Re: A new Korean War?
Will the US allow Brazil to acquire WMDs, considering that they would be meant to counter the US threat?
(Sorry for over posting, Doug)
Ulhas
-No, but US power isn´t absolute. In a huge country, those weapons can -be developed in secrecy. Otherwise, they will cause what they are -meant to avoid. Anyway, I think there isn´t a serious plan to develop -them for now. I think there are some variables you can consider here. 1-Brazil will elect a left wing president. I think he will follow nationalist policies and put forward some social reforms and moderate interventionist policies. However, Washington may react negatively even to those moderate policies. Washington demands nothing more than total submission. 2-Brazilian military are quite nationalist and they are worried with the prospects of Brazil becoming an US colony. This would led to an alliance between (right wing) militaries and the left wing government. 3-If moderate policies fail to reach their objectives, it will open possibilities for a radicalization of local politics ( I think it will happen) Here we have the risks of a right wing or a left wing dictatorship. A collapse "Argentina like" is also possible. 4-Furthermore, there is a possibility of the US becoming more and more agressive and militaristic as response to an eventual US (relative) decline. -So, I think the development of WMD isn´t took seriously here, but this -may change depending on US stance towards our country.
Alexandre Fenelon