[Thanks for posting, Yoshie. Unfortunately, that excerpt cuts off at the really juicy part of this article -- at least as far as the LBO list is concerned, where mention of the K-wave is a no-no :) Bello goes on to say:]
The Brenner canvas of post-War expansion and decline has a remarkable affinity to the theory of the early Soviet-era economist Nikolai Kondratieff that capitalism moves forward in 50-60-year-long "waves" that ascend, crest, and descend into a deep trough. Yet, surprisingly, The Boom and the Bubble does not contain a single reference to Kondratieff. This is intriguing.
Perhaps Brenner is trying to distance himself from the deterministic interpretations of Kondratieff, which have either posited the exploitation and exhaustion of new technologies as the central driver of long-wave activity or proclaimed the inevitability of a massive Great Depression-like crisis.
If this is the case, Brenner is right to be wary of sounding apocalyptic, given the resiliency that has enabled U.S.-dominated global capitalism to surmount crises in the past five decades. He fails, however, to discuss the factor that should serve as the greatest reason for caution: China. ... But barring a sharp turn by China's leaders, the likelihood of a Kondratieff-like deflationary — if not depressive — phase is really great at this point....
[end of excerpt]
Carl
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