as in the following:
Moscow Times Saturday, Oct. 26, 2002. Page 10
Is This the Beginning of the End for Putin?
By Boris Kagarlitsky
President Vladimir Putin's rule started with the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 and with his promises to establish order in the country. Many Russian citizens saw in Putin the embodiment of their dream of a trustworthy state and a firm hand. Order and security were to be attained no matter what the cost, while human rights and freedom of speech were put on the back burner or completely forgotten.
Today, Putin is up against the most serious crisis of his presidency. The group of gunmen who seized the "Nord Ost" theater in Moscow have dealt the Kremlin regime a blow straight to the heart. Putin promised security, but three years after he came to power, fully armed gunmen in Chechen uniform were able to ride unhindered around the capital in jeeps and seize hundreds of hostages. He promised order, but his law enforcement agencies and military demonstrate total powerlessness.
One could state that the "counter-terrorist operation" conducted in Chechnya over the past three years has been a complete flop. But that would be untrue, because there was never any attempt to conduct a counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya. It hasn't even been a war, but rather a brutal and senseless pogrom.
In the Kremlin, it has long been understood that the Chechen war cannot be won -- however it could be forgotten. One could pretend that the problem was not being dealt with because it did not exist and then convince everyone else that was the case. But reality always gets its own back. The Kremlin won the information battle, by silencing its critics and forcing the mass media to keep quiet about what was actually going on in Chechnya. However, having won that battle, it lost the war. The belief in the omnipotence of propaganda resulted in political impotence.
The reality of the Chechen tragedy burst into the political life of the country in the most brutal manner: The war came to Moscow, ripping through all information barriers and impediments. I mean war and not terrorism. You can condemn the gunmen as much as you like, but it would be bare-faced hypocrisy to omit that the federal army in Chechnya behaves itself considerably worse than the Chechens who seized the theater.
How many people in Chechnya have disappeared without a trace in the past three years? How many cities and villages have been destroyed? How many people have been forced to abandon their homes because life was made unbearable for them? It is the federal army that over the three years: abducted and killed Chechens; systematically pillaged and destroyed peaceful villages; has been terrorizing innocent people. And it is they who bear most of the responsibility for what has now happened. If you are looking for terrorists, you could do worse than to start the search in the Kremlin.
Terrified politicians continue to mutter the mantra that you cannot negotiate with terrorists. But all the experience of the two Chechen wars points to the opposite. First, Moscow declares all moderate Chechen politicians, all those with whom an agreement could have been reached, to be terrorists. And then when radical elements actually do come to the fore and when the Chechen side starts to resort to terrorist methods, the leadership in Moscow caves in and starts to negotiate. That was the case with Budyonnovsk and it seems to be repeating itself before our very eyes.
By rejecting a political resolution and wagering on force alone, the federal authorities condemned themselves to failure. Chechen leaders are not so strong politically, but Chechen fighters are prepared to fight to the last man. Unlike Russian generals, they are ready to die. And for that reason they will never be defeated by the use of force.
The seizure of the theater is seen as proof of the impotence of the federal security services, law enforcement agencies and military. Although, one could equally argue that it is proof of their strength, as the Chechen operation bears the hallmarks of Russian training. It was Russian specialists that prepared Chechen special forces for war in Abkhazia. It would seem that the Chechens were fast learners. Also, no matter how well prepared the gunmen were, the question arises of how they could have carried out such a large-scale operation in the center of the capital without the support of influential individuals. This is something that comes to mind to anyone who knows about the constant problems from the police experienced in Moscow by people "of Caucasian extraction."
With this new terrorist act in Moscow, the sun is starting to set on Putin's rule. Let's leave analysis of the various versions of this event to the conspiracy theorists. However, its consequences will be no less dramatic than those in 1999.
Boris Kagarlitsky is a Moscow-based sociologist.