Friday, Oct 25, 2002
U.S.-Iran tussle casts shadow over Bahrain poll
By Atul Aneja
MANAMA (BAHRAIN) OCT. 24. In a region ruled mostly by dictators and theocrats, the tiny Persian Gulf nation of Bahrain went to parliamentary polls today, braving threats by conservatives to checkmate the Kingdom's possible transition towards real democracy.
Bahrainis voted for 174 candidates, eight of them women, while three candidates have already been elected unopposed to the 40-member lower house of Parliament. Bahrain's King, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, who heads a Shoora Council, will personally appoint a chamber of another 40 members after the elections, which will also have legislative powers. In a country with a majority Shia population but Sunni rulers, political parties have been formally barred from contesting. But many candidates in the fray do owe allegiance to "societies", which can be ideology based, such as the Leftist National Democratic Action Association or represent specific ethnic groups. Thursday's elections, which took place after a gap of nearly three decades, however, witnessed a moderate turnout, though official polling figures are expected to be announced only later tonight. Analysts attributed the modest showing by the electorate to the poll boycott call issued by four Shia organisations, including the influential Wefaq group. Shia groups have rejected participation to protest against the King's decision to usher in demcratisation in Bahrain in driblets, by appointing an unelected upper chamber of Parliament.
While the kingdom's attempt to withhold Bahrain's immediate transition to a full-fledged democracy may have been a factor in the boycott call, analysts point out that it could also reflect a larger geopolitical rivalry between Iran and the United States that has come to the fore during elections. Observers point out that Iran exercises considerable influence over the Shia groups while Bahrain's rulers have been known to be close to the U.S. and Britain. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet as well as the regional headquarters for the U.S. Marines. It is bound to play a key role, in a likely U.S.-led campaign against Iraq.
Bahrain's elections, therefore, have repercussions beyond domestic politics, as the U.S., Iran and the rest of the region have high stakes in it. For Bahrain's rulers, elections are an investment for ensuring the country's long-term stability and prosperity. Despite short-term turbulence, Bahrain's leadership believes that a democratic Bahrain under a constitutional monarchy has a better chance of cranking up its mainly non-oil economy in a politically stable atmosphere.
Without significant oil reserves, Bahrain is looking for foreign investments in international banking, tourism, ship-building and petroleum refining. It also aspires to become a major international trade transit hub by expanding its ports and developing new ones.
Jolted by terrorism, which it feels breeds in the region's conservative heartland, the United States, on its part, views Bahrain's experiment with constitutional monarchy as a model for the rest of the oil-rich Persian Gulf States to emulate. Not surprisingly, the U.S. National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice, favouring open societies, has already said that other countries in the region should take the lead from Bahrain's elections. The U.S. also feels that a democratic and stable Bahrain, where it has already established its military bases, will also better serve its national security interests in the region in the future.
On the contrary, the boycott call by the Shia groups is, in part, a demonstration of Iran's ability to assert itself as a regional player, whom the U.S. cannot ignore.
In a show of strength, the Shia organisations on Tuesday mobilised around 75,000 people in a pre-poll protest. Significantly, the demonstration took place a short distance away from the U.S. Fifth Fleet base, signalling the capacity of the Shia groups to affect U.S. deployments in Bahrain's military bases.
Observers point out that Iran, which fears that it could be targeted by the U.S. after Iraq, may leverage its influence on the streets of Bahrain to draw wider concessions from Washington in the coming days.
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