WHAT THE PAPERS THINK OF THE IRAQ DOSSIER
The International Institute for Strategic Studies' dossier published yesterday was touted as the crucial "independent evidence" of the extent of Saddam Hussein's arsenal. Some hope. For the Telegraph, the report shows Saddam is "ready to use chemical and biological weapons as a last resort"; for the Times' foreign editor, it "tips the balance to Bush - but only just"; for the Guardian, it is a "smoking gun that refuses to smoke". And for the Mirror, it "proves Saddam DOESN'T have nukes".
Read the summaries, and the limits of the IISS's knowledge become apparent. Unless Iraq could acquire "sufficient nuclear material" from abroad, it says, it would be several years before the country could produce a nuclear weapon. "No country or group is known to have acquired significant amounts of fissile material on the black market," points out the FT. Indeed, compared with Saddam's arsenal of chemical and biological weapons dating from before the Gulf war, the dossier says "nuclear weapons seem the furthest from Iraq's grasp." His arsenal is almost certainly smaller than it was in 1991.
Nor are the authors aware of any Iraqi activity in the past year, which might heighten the risk to the west. "But this is not a report that offers much room for complacency," writes Bronwen Maddox in the Times. "The menace [Saddam] presents derives as much from intentions as capability, the ISS argues. Although containment has worked so far, we should assume it will fail."
Of all the papers, the Guardian is the least convinced of the dossier's value. "When Dick Cheney hints darkly at 'new evidence' of Iraq's malign intent, it emerges he is referring to mystery tubes that make components that make a centrifuge that makes enriched uranium that makes an N-bomb," the paper's editorial says, "produced and impounded we known not where, when or by whom."
What is needed is a "big push" to enforce the fissile material cut-off treaty, the comprehensive test ban treaty, and the biological and chemical weapons conventions - "all of which Mr Bush has at times ignored, scorned or undermined".
But an increasingly confident Telegraph - noting that the "commonly raised objections" to war are going unanswered - replies to four of them in its leader column. "Any further delay," it concludes, "and Saddam will be strong enough to blackmail the west."
The paper is also pleased to report that Jacques Chirac has "got tough on Saddam". The French president said yesterday that Iraq should be given a three-week ultimatum to re-admit UN weapons inspectors.
* The Iraqi threat - real or imagined?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,789138,00.html
* The burden of proof
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,789211,00.html
* Telegraph: France speaks out http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;$sessionid$MEHZ3RVXX0FUFQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2002/09/10/wirq10.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/09/10/ixport.html
* Mirror: Blairmonger http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/page.cfm?objectid=12186390&method=full&siteid=50143