I hope I am not repeating too much but I do think that - at least in the first instance - the money issue will not be oil prices (which could go any which way and depend on lots of factors). It will be the new split in the profits and control: 3rd world country vs. private western companies. In that sense it will be misleading to look at the "strength of OPEC'. Hasn't OPEC policy always had conflicting pressures, partly (mostly?) from 3rd world governments as producers/owners but also sometimes friendly to the private western oil companies with whom all have links in some areas? That balance will now shift. The "strength" of OPEC could go down, up, or stay the same. But the focus within OPEC policy will shift to being yet more representative of the private companies' concerns.
On to the next step: as the nationalist "modernization" governments of OPEC weaken, and as their share of the profits diminish in favor of the foreign private companies, what happens to the fundamentalist movements and the frustrations that make them flourish?
There will be serious changes in the development patterns of the Middle East. I don't think the impact of this war will just be short term anger.
Paul
Kevin Robert Dean wrote:
>Again, I do apologize if this has been mentioned before, I
>didn't get a chance to read all the threads on this matter,
>but I was curious as to what happened to oil prices and
>employment during and after Gulf War I and ran across these
>interesting things:
>
>The first is from a WSJ article on predictions on what
>might happen to the economy after this present war--the
>conclusion seems to be the same as everyone else--no one
>knows--
>
>http://www.stern.nyu.edu/News/news/2003/march/0324wsj.html
>
>Secondly, the Washington Institute (I have no idea who
>these guys are) has some interesting things to say about
>OPEC and the effects a 'win' in Iraq will have on OPECs
>power--they conclude it will weaken, and oil prices will
>fall---which is good news for oil consumers, and bad for
>"one crop" economies who export the black gold.
>
>http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubs/exec/consexec.htm
>---
>Sent from UnionMail Service [http://mail.union.org.za]