[lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy - Orange juice futures

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Sat Aug 2 16:14:56 PDT 2003


On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 James Surowiecky wrote:


> Re: an earlier point, the "predictions" Roll was measuring were of
> weather conditions roughly six to eighteen hours after market close. So
> there was no suggestion that markets could make long-term weather
> predictions.

Well that was a pretty monumental and embarassing misreading on my part. But now I have a different question: what does daily temperature variation have to do with the eventual OJ yield? I understanding how the average seasonal temperature would affect yield. But isn't day to day variation completely irrelevant to eventual yield?

Michael



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