>Also, is it true their predictive power hasn't been reduced?
I'm just parrotting what the AAPOR-ites say - I haven't factchecked them.
>I thought in
>the last presidential election the unchallenged consensus of the polls for
>3 months running up to the election was that Bush would win the popular
>vote. (Although some thought Gore might possibly win the electoral
>college.)
They've also got lots of state & local elections to test the polls against. But presidential polls taken in the months before the election are notoriously unreliable - there are convention bounces, scandals and other temporary sensations, etc.
Doug