[lbo-talk] Polling Methods

Luke Weiger lweiger at umich.edu
Sun Aug 3 13:24:40 PDT 2003


Michael Pollack wrote:


> Also, is it true their predictive power hasn't been reduced? I thought in
> the last presidential election the unchallenged consensus of the polls for
> 3 months running up to the election was that Bush would win the popular
> vote. (Although some thought Gore might possibly win the electoral
> college.)
>
> But perhaps that mistake fell within margin of error.

It certainly did. Can't recall the exact poll-by-poll numbers, but most (correctly) demonstrated that the race was essentially a toss-up by election eve.

-- Luke



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