Political scientists are commenging on public interest in Sergei Glaziev, Duma member and a prominent member of the People's Patriotic Union. Given the multitude of articles and rumors in the media about Glaziev, it is clear that one of the major intrigues of the 2003 parliamentary election will be associated with the "Glaziev phenomenon."
For various reasons (often diametrically opposed reasons) and motives, most Russian citizens in almost all strata of society believe that the time has come to do something, finally; that things cannot continue as they are. Vladimir Putin was elected in 2000 on a wave of expectations and hopes. Several years have passed. The potential of that wave is not yet exhausted. The protest vote, demanding changes, is socially active. These voters would be a boon for any political force capable of attracting and holding them.
For years, the Communist Party led by Gennadi Zyuganov has been the only force in Russia capable of challenging the powers-that-be. These days, however, the Communists have fallen on hard times and find it increasingly difficult to retain their leading position. A new force, a new opposition, has taken shape in Russia. On the one hand, it refuses to tolerate the current regime. On the other, it detests the ideology of Marxism. What counts is that the new class does not automatically associate patriotism with left-wing ideas. On the contrary, patriotism exceeds the borders and postulates of the communist policy program.
Naturally enough, it is difficult for the Communist Party to forsake the title of "the only defender of the people." Only 30-40% of the protest voters are now prepared to vote for the Communist Party. Even so, Zyuganov's camp is consolidated - while other participants in the people's patriotic movement are fairly amorphous. Playing on this solidarity versus vagueness, the Communist Party has established strict control over all of them.
Practice shows that this control or management is ineffective because it inevitably leads to losses - the loss of votes, in this particular case. Opinion polls indicate that over half of voters are prepared to support the people's patriotic bloc, while fewer than 25% are prepared to vote for the Communist Party list. The remaining patriotic forces cannot overcome the 5% of the vote barrier, so their votes will be divided among the winners. It is hard to say at this point exactly how the numerous opposition parties and movements will behave this time. Until now, they have never been able to overcome the temptation to run for the lower house independently, owing this to their own aspirations and the arrogance of the Communist Party. These days, however, all these parties and movements have an alternative option.
Of all politicians close to the Communist Party, only Sergei Glaziev can be attractive to the new non-communist opposition. No wonder he is under a concentrated propaganda attack nowadays. One moment, this promising politician is warned against being overly rash and quitting the Communist Party; next moment he is suspected of being eager to play into the Kremlin's hands. The quantity of barbs has transformed into quality, leaving the impression that Glaziev is feared. Why?
Some functionaries in the upper echelons of the Communist Party fear that appearance of a new opposition coalition will affect their own political influence. These functionaries are vigorously promoting the idea of having the Communist Party run for the Duma on its own, without any alliances or blocs. At the same time, they are reluctant to let Glaziev walk away, since they cannot come up with an adequate replacement for him - and they know it.
Those who hope to use Glaziev against Zyuganov would also like to see his name on the Communist Party list. Zyuganov aims for absolute control over party activities; he is in charge of both the party and its faction in the lower house. Many "dissidents" would like some other strong politician to serve as a counterweight - as leader of the faction, for example.
As far as Glaziev himself is concerned, he would be better off outside the Communist Party. Just imagine what would have happened to Vladimir Putin's popularity rating if he had joined the United Russia party. That is why Glaziev will probably establish a bloc of his own; unless the congress of the Communist Party this September votes for a broad coalition.
Should Glaziev consolidate the people's patriotic forces, his success would make life much more difficult for United Russia. Even if United Russia defeats the Communists in the parliamentary election, a consolidated opposition may end up with a majority in the Duma. That would cause problems for both United Russia and Zyuganov and Co.
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