From an objective, macro-social point of view, you are absolutely right - the outcome or impact of ANY social program is often a moot point because of the multitude of influences causing social problems, inadequate resources, lack of clear understand of causal connections that allow intervention, and so on.
I guess I overstated my case against the NAACP - but there is a personal side to it. When I moved to Baltimore at the end of 1992 I discovered that it is easy to be a nice anti-racist liberal when you live on a college campus or perhaps in the suburban wasteland isolated form the real life. But if you live in an inner city - it is a very different story. When every day you see characters from racist stereotypes parading in front of your eyes, you start having doubts: you either believe what you see or you believe in what someone told you is politically correct.
To make a long story short, I believe what I see and that is why I started actively looking for counter-examples to the characters from racist stereotypes parading before my eyes on the streets of Baltimore. In other words, I started actively looking for American Blacks who were sharp, professional, and on-the ball. I say "American" because I do some of my research in Africa and my experience of the African community is very much different from what is dubbed "African" in this country (that, btw, is true of other ethnicities as well).
That active looking for counterexamples explains some of my life choices, such as teaching at a historically Black college (Morgan State) for a while, buying an apartment in a predominantly black, well organized community, and yes - noticing that Farrakhanites look sharp, professional and well-organized even though the ideology they sell stinks.
The flip side of this combating prejudice within oneself is its "ghettoization" - or attribution to a narrowly defined identity group within a population to counter the general tendency of people attributing them to the entire population. Thus, people talk about "Nazis" rather than "Germans," Zionists" rather than "Jews," "Islamists" rather than "Arabs" to avoid attributing an undisputably negative characteristic (fascism, terrorism) to an entire ethnic group. In the same manner, I rant about "gangsta/hip hop identity" which on several occasions provoked ire on this list.
This why the NAACP (and the media, to be sure) move to use a criminal hoodlum as the casus belli in the struggle against racism touches a raw nerve. It essentially draws attention and reinforces racist stereotypes - that of the "black criminal" engaging in senseless violence and that of the "black activists" knee-jerk jumping to his defense. I guess I am not the only one who sees it that way - Paul Gilroy (_Against Race_) seems to be going in the same direction, albeit his view are not very popular among the liberal establishment enamored with identity politics.
BTW. If the Cincinnati incident happened in the community where I live, most people would probably thank the police for responding - as the inadequate police response to calls is one of the main complaints of our residents. Our community activists do not defend criminals who got raw treatment, but rather take on slumlords, speculators, and unresponsive city officials.
I hope that explains where I am coming from and will not entice anyone on this list to pull a Proyect on me.
Wojtek