[lbo-talk] Jobless Claims Up Unexpectedly Last Week

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Dec 11 09:29:43 PST 2003


Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:


>This is in times when businesses should be hiring for Christmas shopping
>frenzy. I wonder what will happen afterwards.

Speaking of seasonal adjustment, if you get less hiring than expected in the run-up to Xmas, that appears as a weaker labor market. But less seasonal hiring implies less-than-usual seasonal layoffs in January, which appears as a stronger labor market. That happened with the employment stats last year. The pattern should be more "normal" this year, since retailers were moderately optimistic going into November.

Doug



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