[lbo-talk] Re: reliability of online polls

Daniel Davies d_squared_2002 at yahoo.co.uk
Mon Dec 15 11:19:28 PST 2003


Wojtek wrote:


>>I did go to their web site and cast my vote in favor of legalizing gay
marriages, and was diverted to the table showing the results of their poll - 98.7% voting AGAINST legalization. I understand that the sample may suffer from self-selection bias - so the more realistic number is closer to 70-80% against.<<

I am always reminded of a happy evening spent watching Ulster TV on a night when a boxer from Northern Ireland called Ray Close had just got seven bells knocked out of him and lost on points. UTV had organised a phone-in poll on whether the referee's decision was fair or not, which went something like 98% unfair, 2% fair. The commentator's reaction stays with me to this day:

"Even allowing for a bit of bias, that's got to be a victory for the local boy".

Never assume that you can make allowances for the bias of a self-selected poll.

Self-selected polls are *worthless*.

dd

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