As ever he relies on his fave one factor causal model (exchange rates / international "competition"), but in this piece it doesn't really much figure - it almost seems to have been thrown in more as a matter of habit. As for what has to be key - overcapacity - he lays it out with enthusiasm. And as for what would happen if (when?) a dramatic fall of the US dollar appears inevitable, he asks the right questions - would not those who could get out by selling US dollar assets make a mad rush for the door, and then would not the Fed be faced with either instant collapse in asset prices or raising interest rates (i.e. a collapse a bit later) to keep the hot cash in dollars?
(except that the ruling classes of most of the world know that a crisis for the US ruling class would be their crisis as well...)
john mage