> -I think the CP still can survive as ruling party as far the economy is
> growing
> -and social tensions don´t rise too much. I would say social tensions are
> -the worse threat to CP rule, since layoffs in SOE´s will led the Chinese
> -welfare system to collapse. I´m uncertain on how many time China will be
> -able to sustain its 7% annual growth.
As China gets further integrated with the world economy, it will be subjected the global boom and bust cycle.
>> how you measure poverty in Brazil?
> >hat kind of benchmarks you use?
> -Per capita less than US$60,00 PPP adjusted. We have 30% of our people
> -living in poverty by that measurement.This value is still too low, I
> -think. I would use at least US$150,00 (empirically I feel this would
> -be a better value)
150,000 or 15,000 $?
>>india's 10th five year plan (2002-07) targets 8% annual GDP growth. But
that
>> is not likely to be achieved.
> -Maybe 5-6%?
Yes. The annual rate of savings of 23-25% and incremental capital output ratio of 4.17 gives you growth rate of about 5-6%. What would be incremental capital output ratio is Brazil?
> Btw, what are the prospects of Brazil emerging as a superpower?
>
> -Forget this....economy stagnated in the last 20 years, new worker´s party
> -government implementing the same neoliberal policies of the former right
> -wing government..huge budget costs to allow a surplus of 4,2% of GDP
What are the main contrainsts on growth in Brazil?
> -we spend 8% of GDP with interest payments, so the public debt won´t
> -decrease even with those rigid fiscal policies....not to mention that
> -we signed the non proliferation treaty (how to be a superpower withouth
> -A-bombs?)
After 9/11, it would be even more difficult for Brazil to acquire nukes.
Ulhas