-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Ulhas Joglekar Enviada em: quinta-feira, 13 de fevereiro de 2003 16:44 Para: lbo-talk Assunto: Re: Reasons to support war on Iraq
Alexandre Fenelon wrote:
As China gets further integrated with the world economy, it will be subjected the global boom and bust cycle.
-Agree with you, that´s the risk of going too far with reforms. Is it -too late?
150,000 or 15,000 $?
-Sorry, I was ralking about monthly per capita income (US$150,00/person/month)
Yes. The annual rate of savings of 23-25% and incremental capital output ratio of 4.17 gives you growth rate of about 5-6%. What would be incremental capital output ratio is Brazil?
-I don´t know, will thry to find data.
What are the main contrainsts on growth in Brazil?
-Massive public debt that led to a very high taxes (36% of GDP) while -1/3 of public expenses are used to pay interest rates and another -1/3 is used to pay for the Social security deficit. So public investment -is almost 0, while overall investment rate is near 20% of GDP. -High current account deficit (almost 5% of GDP until last year when -a big devaluation of our currency led to a dramatic improvement of -trade balance, however, this is somewhat artificial and only can -be sustained by a prolonged recession. Excessive denationalization -of economy due to privatization, now that our currency is devaluated -the new owners of privatized enterprises consider investment -unatractive. External debt near 40% of GDP. -Reults: Annual GDP growth 1994-2002=2,3%. Population growth=1,2%/year
After 9/11, it would be even more difficult for Brazil to acquire nukes.
-Agree with you, anyway, I think it is not a priority...for now...
Alexandre Fenelon
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