>Tuesday, February 18, 2003
>
> A Weekend Full of Shame
> By Boris Kagarlitsky
>
> The global crisis that came to a head over the weekend has resulted in
> defeat and unprecedented humiliation
> for the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. Washington had
> been sure that France would not
> veto its proposed UN resolution on launching military action against
> Iraq. But last Friday it became clear that
> the U.S. proposal was dead in the water even without a French veto. The
> weapons inspectors did not follow the
> script that Washington had expected, and Security Council members took
> the floor one after the next to state
> their opposition to war.
>
> An even bigger humiliation for Bush followed in the form of huge
> anti-war marches around the world, including
> the United States. The few West European governments that still support
> Washington came in for massive
> street pressure. A consensus is building around the world that Bush is a
> dangerous man. The leadership in
> Washington kept stubbornly repeating that Saddam Hussein poses a threat
> to humanity, but their exhortations
> had the opposite effect. Hussein clearly poses a threat to his own
> people, but millions of people around the
> world have reached the conclusion that Bush, not Hussein, poses a threat
> to the planet.
>
> While the U.S. leadership came under attack, Russia once more
> demonstrated its impotence and insignificance. Over the past decade
> Russia has been politically dependent on the United States, and
> economically on Germany. The United States dictated Russia's political
> agenda, while Germany gradually became its most important business
> partner and source of foreign investment. This system worked quite well
> so long as Germany kept a low profile in international affairs and at least
> made a show of solidarity with the United States. When disagreements
> between the United States and Germany came to the surface, however,
> the Russian leadership was at a loss.
>
> Moscow behaved like one of Ivan Pavlov's dogs. So long as the signals
> come one at a time, the dog's conditioned reflexes respond properly -- it
> salivates at the sound of the bell. Then the scientist gives it two
> contradictory signals. The poor beast goes into a panic, spinning around
> in its cage. Something similar has happened with the Russian leadership
> this winter. Only when it became clear that France and Germany would
> secure a majority in the Security Council, and that no veto would be
> required, did President Vladimir Putin demonstratively side with the
> victors.
>
> For 10 years Kremlin ideologues have led the public to believe that
> Russia must support the United States or
> risk condemnation from the "entire civilized world." The events of last
> Friday revealed, however, that
> Washington is now isolated. Russian policymakers drew the right
> conclusion in the end. As was immediately
> obvious, however, their actions were driven not by firm principles or
> concern for the national interest, but sheer
> opportunism. The sight of Russian leaders mouthing words dictated in
> Berlin while never taking their eyes off
> of Washington was nothing short of embarrassing.
>
> Russian society, unfortunately, seized the opportunity to sink to the
> level of its leaders. On Saturday, when
> hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Western
> Europe, the United States and even
> Australia, Russians preferred to stay at home. This would have made
> sense if Russians supported Bush or
> approved of the war, but polls show that opposition to war in Iraq is no
> less widespread here than in most
> European countries. Even the Chechen campaign no longer enjoys broad
> support. Anti-war sentiment may be
> quite high, but the public has no plans to tell anyone about it.
>
> Local leaders in some provincial towns organized anti-war marches,
> rounding up participants using the good
> old Soviet tactic of "compulsory voluntarism." In Moscow, where the old
> tactics no longer work, two
> demonstrations were held. Leftist and pacifist organizations rallied
> about 200 young people on Tverskoi Bulvar
> under the slogan: "No War in Iraq and Chechnya!" The Communists and
> their nationalist allies barely managed
> to turn out twice that number. For the Communists, with their enormous
> resources, this turnout was humiliating.
> But the left can hardly be proud of its efforts, either.
>
> The politicians may well be pleased with how Russia extricated itself
> from this crisis. Things could have been
> worse, of course. But to be honest, the weekend's events left me feeling
> deeply ashamed for Russian society.
>
> Boris Kagarlitsky is director of the Institute of Globalization Studies.
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