Krugman on North Kora and Game Theory

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Fri Jan 3 13:18:09 PST 2003


New York Times January 3, 2003

Games Nations Play

By PAUL KRUGMAN

W hat game does the Bush administration think it's playing in Korea?

That's not a rhetorical question. During the cold war, the U.S.

government employed experts in game theory to analyze strategies of

nuclear deterrence. Men with Ph.D.'s in economics, like Daniel

Ellsberg, wrote background papers with titles like "The Theory and

Practice of Blackmail." The intellectual quality of these analyses was

impressive, but their main conclusion was simple: Deterrence requires

a credible commitment to punish bad behavior and reward good behavior.

I know, it sounds obvious. Yet the Bush administration's Korea policy

has systematically violated that simple principle.

Let's be clear: North Korea's rulers are as nasty as they come. But

unless we have a plan to overthrow those rulers, we should ask

ourselves what incentives we're giving them.

So put yourself in Kim Jong Il's shoes. The Bush administration has

denounced you. It broke off negotiations as soon as it came into

office. Last year, though you were no nastier than you had been the

year before, George W. Bush declared you part of the "axis of evil." A

few months later Mr. Bush called you a "pygmy," saying: "I loathe Kim

Jong Il I've got a visceral reaction to this guy. . . . They tell me,

well we may not need to move too fast, because the financial burdens

on people will be so immense if this guy were to topple -- I just

don't buy that."

Moreover, there's every reason to take Mr. Bush's viscera seriously.

Under his doctrine of pre-emption, the U.S. can attack countries it

thinks might support terrorism, whether or not they have actually done

so. And who decides whether we attack? Here's what Mr. Bush says: "You

said we're headed to war in Iraq. I don't know why you say that. I'm

the person who gets to decide, not you." L'état, c'est moi.

So Mr. Bush thinks you're a bad guy and that makes you a potential

target, no matter what you do.

On the other hand, Mr. Bush hasn't gone after you yet, though you are

much closer to developing weapons of mass destruction than Iraq. (You

probably already have a couple.) And you ask yourself, why is Saddam

Hussein first in line? He's no more a supporter of terrorism than you

are: the Bush administration hasn't produced any evidence of a

Saddam-Al Qaeda connection. Maybe the administration covets Iraq's oil

reserves; but it's also notable that of the three members of the axis

of evil, Iraq has by far the weakest military.

So you might be tempted to conclude that the Bush administration is

big on denouncing evildoers, but that it can be deterred from actually

attacking countries it denounces if it expects them to put up a

serious fight. What was it Teddy Roosevelt said? Talk trash but carry

a small stick?

Your own experience seems to confirm that conclusion. Last summer you

were caught enriching uranium, which violates the spirit of your 1994

agreement with the Clinton administration. But the Bush

administration, though ready to invade Iraq at the slightest hint of a

nuclear weapons program, tried to play down the story, and its

response cutting off shipments of fuel oil was no more than a rap on

the knuckles. In fact, even now the Bush administration hasn't done

what its predecessor did in 1994: send troops to the region and

prepare for a military confrontation.

So here's how it probably looks from Pyongyang:

The Bush administration says you're evil. It won't offer you aid, even

if you cancel your nuclear program, because that would be rewarding

evil. It won't even promise not to attack you, because it believes it

has a mission to destroy evil regimes, whether or not they actually

pose any threat to the U.S. But for all its belligerence, the Bush

administration seems willing to confront only regimes that are

militarily weak.

The incentives for North Korea are clear. There's no point in playing

nice -- it will bring neither aid nor security. It needn't worry about

American efforts to isolate it economically -- North Korea hardly has

any trade except with China, and China isn't cooperating. The best

self-preservation strategy for Mr. Kim is to be dangerous. So while

America is busy with Iraq, the North Koreans should cook up some

plutonium and build themselves some bombs.

Again: What game does the Bush administration think it's playing?

Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company



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