US-Russia cooperation on NMD?

ChrisD(RJ) chrisd at russiajournal.com
Fri Jan 10 01:30:11 PST 2003


The Globe and Mail (Canada) January 9, 2002 Joint U.S.-Russia shield proposed Once Cold War foes, now both countries find missile-defence interests converging By MARK MACKINNON

MOSCOW -- A U.S. diplomat suggests that the United States and Russia work jointly on developing a controversial ballistic-missile shield, signalling an end to one of the sharpest diplomatic disputes between the two countries since the end of the Cold War.

As recently as a year ago, Russia objected vociferously to the idea of a ballistic-missile shield, arguing it would both contravene the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty and undermine international security. But U.S. ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow suggested the two sides work together on the missile-shield project, raising the possibility of an elaborate defence system stretching across the Northern Hemisphere.

"There are plenty of opportunities for joint development of the architecture of the future system," he told the Interfax news agency in an interview published yesterday. "Given that Russia has tremendous scientific know-how and some experience with defensive systems, we think this could be a really serious partnership, which will benefit us both."

Russian President Vladimir Putin was first to raise the idea of a joint missile defence shield for Russia and Western Europe two years ago.

But the idea garnered little support and was seen at the time as an attempt to forestall U.S. plans and rally European opposition to the missile-shield idea. Mr. Vershbow, however, said the idea has great merits and is now being given serious consideration.

The onetime Cold War enemies are finding their defence interests regularly coincide in the new international environment, Mr. Vershbow said.

"I think we more and more recognize that our interests are converging and we are defending the same values on the international stage," Mr. Vershbow was quoted as saying.

The apparent willingness to compromise on both sides is part of a growing closeness that has set in since the terrorist attacks on the United States of Sept. 11, 2001. The new relationship is based both on a shared concern about terrorism launched by Islamic extremists, and the apparently warm personal relationship between Mr. Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush.

While the Kremlin is still seen as a chief diplomatic ally to Mr. Bush's "axis of evil" countries -- Iran, Iraq and North Korea -- it recently made it clear it would not be unduly upset if Saddam Hussein were deposed in Iraq, and has warned North Korea not to abrogate nuclear non-proliferation treaties in its current standoff with the United States.

The United States, for its part, has muted its criticism of Russia's continuing war in the breakaway republic of Chechnya, and has condemned the elected Chechen leadership for alleged links to international terrorist organizations.

Since the Bush administration decided last year to walk away from the ABM treaty, Mr. Putin has largely dropped his opposition and begun looking for ways Russia can co-operate with the United States.

A missile shield shared by the United States and Russia would not only unite the two countries that first built intercontinental ballistic missiles behind the same defences for the first time, but it would also end a diplomatic row over the Star Wars idea that stretches back to the time of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.

Mr. Vershbow said that Russian S-300 and S-400 ground-to-air missiles could be upgraded for use in an antimissile shield.

He said he saw hope for co-operation in areas such as the development of early-warning systems, missile interception and the missiles themselves.

.....

Russia awaiting US response on missile proposals: ministry

MOSCOW, Jan 9 (AFP) - Moscow said Thursday it was eagerly awaiting a reply from the United States to its proposal on a draft of a new strategic stability agreement to replace the abandoned Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. The United States withdrew from the 1972 ABM treaty last year despite fierce

Russian protests in order to pursue the construction of its controversial missile defense project, which the treaty had banned.

Moscow has since urged Washington to sign up to a new limitation agreement and received some encouragement this week when the US ambassador to Moscow said Washington was willing to improve cooperation with Russia on missile defense.

"We expect that (those comments)... can accelerate a positive response to Russia's project for a new political missile defense agreement, which would support rather than undermine strategic stability," the Russian ministry statement said.

However the statement did not give details of Moscow's proposal.

The two sides have repeatedly hinted at talks in which Russian missile technology like the medium-range S-300 and S-400 interceptor rockets could be incorporated in a US or European defense shield.

Moscow in 1994 offered to take part in a limited European defense system. Yury Baluyevsky, Russia's deputy chief of general staff, said Thursday that work on building such a system could begin as early as this year.

Meanwhile Alexander Vershbow, the US ambassador to Moscow, said in an interview published here Wednesday that Russia and the United States are "in

an exploratory phase as to identifying the areas for cooperation" on missiles.

The Russian statement issued Thursday said that Russia "in recent months" presented to Washington a document building on a broader agreement reach by US President George W. Bush and his counterpart Vladimir Putin in May.

The ministry referred to a "series of concrete proposals" but gave no other details.

Russia last month voiced "regret" that Bush had decided to deploy a limited US missile shield by 2004.

US officials said an approved blueprint called for 10 ground-based interceptor missiles to be deployed at Fort Greeley in Alaska by 2004 and another 10 interceptors by 2005 or 2006.

.... RUSSIA-U.S. ABM COOPERATION BUDDING

MOSCOW, JANUARY 9. /From RIA Novosti's military analyst Victor Litovkin/ -- The statement by the American Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow that the United States is seriously bent on cooperation with Russia in the field of antimissile defense has evoked much interest of the Russian mass media. His compliments to the foremost Russian technologies in the creation of the antiaircraft missile systems S-300, S-400 and other military know-how have been cited by several Russian central television channels.

Still, Russian specialists in the field of antimissile and antiaircraft defense, the creators of the famous S-300 and S-400 systems, military chiefs

have taken the Vershbow declaration quietly, if not uninterestedly. In a conversation with the RIA Novosti analyst, scientists and designers of military machines said it is not the first American proposal to participate in unfolding the antimissile defense system and get a sidelight on the work of American specialists in the National Missile Defense.

For instance, at a London conference 1.5 months ago US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton said that the Bush administration had invited representatives of the Russian government to

be present as observers at the tests of the NMD interceptor rocket. The Pentagon also proposed Russian experts to come to the Fort Bliss military base in Texas to inspect the Patriot antiaircraft missile system, make a visit to Alaska to look at the budding NMD installations near the Fort Grili

military base. Why has the Russian side politely rejected these proposals?

The RIA Novosti interlocutors cite different reasons. But at the root of them lies a firm, even subconscious, mistrust of many Russian specialists in the possibility of mutually beneficial and equitable cooperation with the United

States in this delicate and sensitive for Russia field - antimissile defense. These apprehensions are well-grounded.

They are not only disgruntled over the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 ABM treaty, which many in Russia used to call "the cornerstone

of strategic stability". Many Russian specialists doubt declarations by American officials that the United States builds up the National Missile Defense system as protection against possible strikes from what is called the rogue countries, which in America's view are North Korea, Iraq, Iran and Libya. This mistrust is caused, in the first place, by none of these countries' missiles being able to reach the United States' territory in the next few decades. Nor are there proofs to be found that such missiles can be

created before long.

If so, Russian experts say, why is the United States building, or going to build, early-warning radars in Norway, Great Britain, Alaska, Greenland and even Latvia, instead of in proximity to the rogue countries? Iran and Alaska, North Korea and Latvia lie far apart. Clearly, the effective area of these radars covers the flight tracks of our strategic missiles from the Plesetsk proving ground near Arkhangelsk (Russia's European north) to the Kamchatka proving ground (Russia's Far East), where the strategic missiles' nose cones

land.

Russian specialists have also other reasons to doubt the absolute sincerity of the American proposals. Unfair deal is proposed to Russia, Academician Boris Bunkin, creator of the S-300 system, told the RIA Novosti correspondent. Americans offer to study their developments made dozens of years ago in return for our today's developments, know-how and projects which would help the United States make a qualitative breakthrough in its NMD efforts. It is no fact that these new technologies will then be passed to Russia.

Overseas attention to Russia's antimissile and antiaircraft defense strides follows from the United States' repeated attempts to buy S-300V antiaircraft

systems (designed mostly for troops protection against air and missile strikes on the battlefield) and the S-300PMU system (for the protection of populated places and industrial facilities against such threats). Although several years ago the Pentagon bought S-300V elements from Moscow through the Rosvooruzhenie state company and several S-300PMU control cabins in Minsk through the Beltekhexport company, Washington has not got such missiles, computers or other sensitive elements. Without them it is impossible to envision the algorithm of the entire system, developers say.

Still, largely speaking, Russia just as the United States is interested in cooperation in the development of the American National Missile Defense and the theater antimissile defense for Europe, or, as it is sometimes called, territorial antimissile defense. Yes, Russia has made good achievements in this field and its defense enterprises and design bureaus would find it very

useful to share their developments and get currency to promote their production and create advanced military machines for the Russian army.

The problem is how to separate the technologies and know-how which can be shared without harm to own security from the ideas and strides intended solely for home consumption? It is a major question, which Moscow is thinking over. Maybe this is the reason why at sittings of the Russian-American ABM group, set up on the decision of the two presidents to discuss transparency and further ABM cooperation, Russian specialists, as witnesses say, prefer rather to sit mum than make concrete proposals. Even the nature of questions

asked by our interlocutors shows what they know, what they do not know and what they would like to know. Their answers and notes can be suggestive and prompt them to unwelcome decisions, witnesses say.

Alongside natural problems of keeping their technological and military secrets, there are also problems of competition between defense companies, protection of commercial interests of these or other national and international corporations. They say in Moscow that the United States and Europe know well about the Russian achievements in the field of antimissile and antiaircraft defense, would like to agree on orders for concrete products with parameters of interest to the military. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is making such proposals to military-industrial corporations of France, Great Britain, Japan and other countries, except Russia. This is what alerts Russian specialists, cannot make them sure of the possibility of real and mutually beneficial cooperation with Washington in the field of antimissile defense.

Nobody expects that such cooperation can be arranged in a year or two. Too much has been separating us for more than half a century. Too much mistrust has been stockpiled over the past decades of confrontation. But time flies. Common goals and interests have appeared before our two countries and the international community. There is a hope that they will help overcome the amassed differences and mistrust, put Russia and the United States on the road of a closer cooperation. Even in such a delicate sphere for own defense

as antiballistic missile defense



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