> -Well, USSR also had impressive GDP growth rates from 1929 to 1973. Brazil
> also
> -had very impressive growth rates until the 80´s. However, to what extent
> are
> -those GDP growth rates sustainable? Thailand and Mlaysia are doing well,
of
> -course, but look at the tables and you already see that Indonesia´s
growth
> -rates were already declining before 1998.
Yes, I agree with you. But there is no guarantee that China or India also won't slide into crisis. Despite all the knocking Indonesia has taken, Indonesia's HDI global ranking (110) is better than India's (124).
>Why this happens, or, better,
> what
> -are the variables who have real influence over long term GDP growth
rates?
I don't know. I am not an economist. Perhaps the strategy of export lead growth reached limits. How long can the US sustain the current account deficit?
>> Privatised state owned companies have been sold to domestic businesses in
>> our
>> case.
>
> -Was privatization extensive?
It is gathered momentum in last couple of years. But it is still not very extensive. In addition to outright privatisation, there is an opening up of sectors previously reserved for state enterprises to the private business. So state and private business compete, e.g. banking, insurance etc. Some state enterprises have been listed on the stock exchanges with state retaining majority ownership and full management control.
> >Why auto industry works with 50% unused capacity?
> -Because there was excessive investment in a country who lacked capacity
to
> -buy those cars. And international market is also saturated. There was
> -overinvestment in auto industry around the world in the 90´s. Our country
> -is just a extreme example....
It is said that MNCs have deep pockets. They can absorb losses for a long period.
>> Yes, it should be possible for large countries such as Brazil and
Indonesia.
>> With the emergence of regional trade blocks like ASEAN, there will some
loss
> >of sovereignty.
> -On the other hand those blocks are a way to retain at least some
> sovereignity
> -since they heve better conditions to negoctiate with more powerful
> countries.
Yes. But ASEAN is going for a larger trade block with China. Later Japan and South Korea may join them.
> -Mercosul already exists (since the early 90´s). The big trouble is that
> -the Mercosul countries are bankrupted....anyway Mercosul in only a free
> -trade block, and I believe those blocks shouls be more oriented towards
> -economic and technological cooperation.
We rarely hear about the achievements of other countries in the Western Hemishere except Cuba, though many Central and South American countries have HDI ranking comparable to Cuba. e.g. Mexico (54), Cuba (55), Columbia (68), Brazil (73) etc.
Ulhas