-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Ulhas Joglekar Enviada em: segunda-feira, 13 de janeiro de 2003 12:19 Para: lbo-talk Assunto: Re: More on Hardt & Negri from Brennan
Yes, I agree with you. But there is no guarantee that China or India also won't slide into crisis. Despite all the knocking Indonesia has taken, Indonesia's HDI global ranking (110) is better than India's (124).
-I agree with you. I think China will face ecological limits to growth, -since it is resulting in high levels of pollution and loss of arable -land. I would say planned management of natural resources would be -necessary, but the environmental records of planned(?) economies are -really miserable. I think that increasing inequalities in Chinese -society is another risk, since Chinese peasant masses have a history -of rebellions against the social order (including the bloodiest Civil -war ever seen in the world..). This is further worsened by the collapse -of the social welfare net in China (who is linked to SOE´s). I don´t -know what aew the risks India faces. I don´t know too much about India.
I don't know. I am not an economist.
-No problem, the economists also don´t know this....I think we should look -the answers in geopolitical and demographic variables, while liberals -curently emphatizes cultural and institutional variables (property rights, -rule of the law, religion and so on...)
Perhaps the strategy of export lead rowth reached limits. How long can the US sustain the current account deficit?
-This always amazes be. It will reach almost 5% of GDP this year....
It is gathered momentum in last couple of years. But it is still not very extensive. In addition to outright privatisation, there is an opening up of sectors previously reserved for state enterprises to the private business. So state and private business compete, e.g. banking, insurance etc. Some state enterprises have been listed on the stock exchanges with state retaining majority ownership and full management control.
-And how this resulted in budgets deficits or surpluses. In Brazil, public -deficit worsened dramatically in the privatization years (due to a policy -of practicing obscenely high interest rates to attract foreign capital, -which in turn was necessary due to 4% GDP current account deficit. Interest -rates reached 85% in 1995!)
It is said that MNCs have deep pockets. They can absorb losses for a long period.
-Yes, but here we have a classic overinvestment crisis, like the technology -bubble. I think some of those enterprises will leave the Brazilian market.
We rarely hear about the achievements of other countries in the Western Hemishere except Cuba, though many Central and South American countries have HDI ranking comparable to Cuba. e.g. Mexico (54), Cuba (55), Columbia (68), Brazil (73) etc.
-That is an interesting point. Chile is the Latin American country who has -the best HDI indexes. Those high indexes coexist with an horrible level -of inequality (Ginni near 60!!!). And something like 20-25% of Chilean -population live in absolute poverty (this index was 40% when Pinochet -left). Argentina and Uruguay also are used to have high HDI´s, but they -are in deep economic troubles now. While talking about Cuba one must -consider she has a small GNP per capita and so she is doing very well -in the remaining components of HDI. I´m not particularly impressed with -Cuba´s performance, altought it´s worth to remember this country suffered -no worsening in HDI or increase in mortality after the collpase of USSR. -In this aspect they did much better than Russia itself, not to mention -North Korea. Economic regression also was dramatic, but less than that -verified in FSU. And they recovered somewhat in the last 5 years. While -this points to the relative efficiency of that country in dealing with -a very adverse situation and the high priority the Cuban state gives to -their citizens welfare, it doesn´t turns Cuba´s policy in one to be -followed in LA. Also pay attentio to the fact that inequality in LA -countries is very high. No country here, except Cuba, has a Ginni index -near to yours. The best ones have 40-45.
-Btw: A personal question. Are you a member of the Indian Congress or -another left wing Indian Party? I usually vote for the Worker´s Party -but I have no political affiliation.