> Is Mugabe negotiating?
First off, let me make clear that I'm not endorsing South Africa's position. I'm just saying it's a position; it's dead the opposite of ours; and they have more invested in it than we do.
As for whether there are real negotiations going on, that's completely impossible to tell. Both Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai vehemently deny that any such talks are going on. But South Africa and Nigeria say they are.
One reason for this vehement denial could be that if such talks are going on, they might well be about displacing both of them. Mugabe stepping down would be a precondition for a ZANU/MDC coalition government. But South Africa also makes no secret of the fact that they dislike Tsvangirai, who they see as too pro-western, pro-white, and lacking in freedom fighter credentials. Rumor is that they would prefer to replace him with the MDC party secretary Welshman Ncube -- who is supposedly the person representing the MDC at the talks.
There is so far no public evidence that ZANU-PF would accept a coalition government, the idea of which it regularly denounces. But the MDC has mooted the idea many times, and their main plan now seems to be that outside forces should convince the Harare government to accept it. So the South African plan can claim to have some connection to both sides. By contrast, US ideas on the matter seem strangely unconnected to anything. It's kind of our default plan: Mugabe should stop down because we say so and make threats, and then . . . everyone lives happily ever after.
Michael