<http://release.nber.org/july2003.html>
>Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
>
>CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
>National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. At its meeting,
>the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred
>in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of
>the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an
>expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less
>than average for recessions since World War II.
>
>In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the
>committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month
>have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at
>normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the
>recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a
>period of falling economic activity spread across the economy,
>lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real
>income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail
>sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start
>of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is
>typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it
>sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
>
>The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date
>until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would
>be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the
>recession that began in March 2001. The committee noted that the
>most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic
>activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0
>percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3
>percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.
>Two other indicators of economic activity that play an important
>role in the committee's decisions-personal income excluding transfer
>payments and the volume of sales of the manufacturing and
>wholesale-retail sectors, both in real terms-have also surpassed
>their pre-recession peaks. Two other indicators the committee
>focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well
>below their pre-recession peaks. Indeed, the most recent data
>indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. The
>committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most
>comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its
>pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the
>economy would be a separate recession.
[...]