>Well, I hope you're right. But it seems to me that
>Bush has a very low threshold for re-election. He just
>needs to stop or reduce the killings of U.S. soldiers
>in Iraq, and to extract a mild stimulus from the tax
>cuts. Neither may happen, but if I was Karl Rove, I'd
>be pretty confident they might.
The U.S. economy's looking a lot better over the last couple of weeks. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are down, manfacturing surveys are showing signs of a turnaround, and GDP is up. And that's before the tax refunds. There have been several false recoveries since the bubble burst in 2000 (stocks)/2001 (real economy), but this could be the real thing.
Doug