Media Release
MORI House, 79-81 Borough Road, London, SE1 1FY Telephone: 020 7347 3000 Fax: 020 7347 3800
4 March 2003
Mood Shifts on War with Iraq
'Smoking gun' would win Blair support for action
Tony Blair is starting to win the war of words over Iraq, with new research from MORI showing a strong increase in the number of Britons backing military action. In a luncheon speech to the D Group in London today, Wednesday, MORI chairman Professor Robert M. Worcester revealed that although a majority of the public still disapproves of Mr Blairs handling of the Iraq situation, there has been almost a ten per cent swing in his favour since mid-January as he has fought to justify his position.
Three quarters (75%) of people in Britain would now be prepared to support British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq. However, this support is conditional both on UN inspectors finding proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and on the UN Security Council voting in favour of military action. In the absence of these two conditions, only a quarter (24%) would support British involvement, and opposition rises from 18% to 67%.
This latest research from MORI shows Blair has finally turned a corner, following a steady decline in support for military action. In September 2002, 71% of people in Britain supported British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq with UN approval. But this had dropped to 61% by January.
There has also been a fall in the number of people who would oppose military action without UN backing. In September 2002, seven in 10 Britons (70%) opposed action without the backing of the UN, and this opposition rose to 77% by January. However, MORI's new research shows opposition would depend as much on the findings of the inspectors as on any vote in the Security Council.
Two thirds (67%) of British people now oppose action if the UN inspectors come up empty-handed and the UN fails to back military action. But opposition falls to two in five (41%) if the inspectors do find evidence that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction - even if the UN still does not vote in favour of action.
As was the case in previous surveys, men are considerably more likely than women to back a war: if the inspectors find proof of Iraqi weapons and the UN votes for military action, 84% of men but only 67% of women would approve of British troops joining in; with no proof of Iraqi weapons and no UN vote in favour, 28% of men would still send in British troops, but only 19% of women would do the same. Overall, men are almost evenly split on the Prime Ministers handling of the Iraq situation, 44% approving and 49% disapproving, but women disapprove by two-to-one, 57% to 27%.
Approval of Mr Blairs handling of the situation is highest among Labour supporters, of whom 52% back him while 39% are dissatisfied. He has the support of only 37% of Conservatives and 24% of Liberal Democrats.
Professor Worcester says: "If the inspectors report a smoking gun in Saddam's hand and the UN second vote is passed then the British - by three to one - think British troops should be used alongside American troops on a war with Iraq.
"Without that, still a quarter (24%) of the British people would support military action, but two thirds would oppose it."
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Technical Details: MORI Telephone Surveys interviewed a representative quota sample of 985 British adults aged 18+ on 28 February-2 March 2003. Data are weighted to match the population profile.