On Tue Mar 18 2003, Kevin Robert Dean quoted the Washington Post saying:
> Seven in 10 said they supported Bush's televised call to go to war
> without the blessing of the United Nations unless Saddam Hussein and his
> sons leave Iraq within 48 hours
Ruy Teixeira, my favorite psephologist, dismisses this as a momentary and completely predictable spike that has nothing to do with the underlying opinion that will really matter politically. He clocks that in as roughly 50/50, which is nothing to write home about when you're talking about war.
<quote>
Public Opinion Watch
Week of March 10-16, 2003
By Ruy Teixeira
<snip>
Turning to the issue of hour, invading Iraq, polling data from this period show an uptick in support for invading Iraq as the diplomatic endgame wound down. (Again, these data are prior to the president's ultimatum speech of Monday, March 17.) In the earlier Gallup poll above, 59 percent said they supported invading with U.S. ground troops to remove Saddam Hussein from power; in the later Gallup poll, the figure was 64 percent. A roughly similar question in the later CBS poll has support for military action to remove Hussein at 66 percent.
So about two-thirds of the public say they're generally on board with a move to invade Iraq. And the Gallup poll further finds^Öthe first time it asked this question^Öthat 58 percent say they would support an invasion of Iraq in the next week or two to remove Hussein. That poll also finds 57 percent saying the Bush administration has made a convincing case about the need for the United States to take military action against Iraq.
But it's striking how much of this support is soft, even at this late date in the process. For example, in the same Gallup poll that registered 64 percent general support for invading Iraq, support drops to 54 percent if the United States offers a resolution to the United Nations and the UN rejects it, and to 47 percent (with 50 percent opposed) if the United States decides not to offer a resolution and proceeds with military action without a UN vote. The latter course of action now appears to be happening, so the Bush administration is taking an evenly divided public down the last few steps to war. This suggests that, after a predictable spike in support with the initial phase of the war, dissension about the war and its rationale will never be far away.
The later CBS poll provides other indicators of this softness. This poll, taken right before Bush's ultimatum speech, has 49 percent saying that the United States should take military action against Iraq even if the UN opposes that action but 40 percent saying that military action should only be taken with UN support and 9 percent saying that military action should not be taken at all. The poll also shows a slight plurality (49 percent) saying the United States should wait and give weapons inspectors more time rather than taking military action fairly soon (46 percent). By only a 50 percent to 43 percent margin the public says removing Hussein is worth the potential loss of American lives and other costs from invading Iraq.
Finally, the later Gallup poll shows that the case for the immediacy of the Iraq threat has never been made. In this poll, also right before Bush's ultimatum speech, just 36 percent said Iraq is an immediate threat to the United States, compared to 54 percent who see it as only a long-term threat and 10 percent who say it is not a threat at all.
OK. That's our benchmark. Next week: The spike (part I) and how to understand it.
<endquote>
To read the entire analysis, go to The Century Foundation at http://www.tcf.org