Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized
2004 Political Landscape
One year ahead of the presidential election, the American electorate is as politically polarized as it was in 1994, when a wave of partisan anger propelled Republicans into control of Congress for the first time in four decades. The difference is that now, unlike then, Republicans and Democrats have become more intense in their political beliefs.
The Pew Research Center's portrait of the political landscape, based on more than 4,000 interviews conducted in the summer and fall, finds large and growing gaps in the fundamental political values that shape the decisions that voters will make a year from now:
American Militancy - The bitter debate over war in Iraq has expanded the already wide partisan gap over national security. Republicans overwhelmingly say preemptive strikes against potential enemies are justified - 82% hold that view, while barely half of Democrats (52%) agree. But nothing illustrates this growing divide more clearly than attitudes toward the Reagan-era concept that the best way to ensure peace is through military strength: 69% of Republicans agree, compared with just 44% of Democrats. That 25-point gap is the largest in the 16 years the Pew Center has asked this question. And independents are increasingly in sync with Democrats in their national security views.
Social Safety Net - During the latter part of the Clinton administration, Democrats tempered their enthusiasm for government social programs. No longer. Seventy-two percent say the government should help more poor people, even if it means going deeper in debt. Opinion among Republicans and independents has been much more stable - and less supportive.
Religious Commitment - A major factor in the 2000 election, religious commitment continues to divide the electorate. In fact, the partisan gap over attitudes toward prayer and belief in God and a Judgment Day is wider than at any point in the last 16 years. This reflects the growing percentage of white evangelical Protestants who identify themselves as Republicans.
Financial Well-Being - Perhaps the most striking partisan disparity is in personal financial satisfaction. In spite of the economy's struggles over the past few years, Republicans are at least contended financially as they were in 1999. But Democrats and independents have become far more negative in their personal financial perceptions.
One of the few areas in which the public's political values - and partisan sentiments - have not changed markedly is in attitudes toward voting. Despite the controversial conclusion of the last presidential election, Americans do not feel more disenfranchised than they did four years ago. And African Americans, outraged over the result in Florida four years ago, are no more likely to believe that their vote does not count.
In addition, the partisan gap over social issues like race and homosexuality, while substantial, is no larger than in the past. Over the past decade, there has been a decided shift in favor of tolerance on issues like race and homosexuality. A generation ago, the idea of blacks and whites dating divided the public almost evenly; today it is broadly accepted. Even groups that staunchly resisted interracial dating have come around - the percentage of white evangelical Protestants who accept blacks and whites dating had doubled since 1987.
Our new portrait of the American electorate also analyzes recent shifts in the nation's political alignment, by drawing on the Pew Research Center's rich database of 80,000 interviews conducted over the past three years. The analysis provides new evidence of the nation's dead-even political balance. Republicans have caught up with the Democrats in partisan affiliation, thanks largely to impressive gains registered by the GOP since Sept. 11, 2001. Republicans have made significant gains in 13 of 50 states, and six of the 13 are crucial swing states like Florida and Michigan.
And yet, the electorate splits evenly for a second term for the president. The divided electorate looks strikingly similar to the one that deadlocked between Bush and Gore in 2000. Men, whites, and those who attend religious services strongly back Bush, while a generic Democrat runs well among women, minorities and those in the lowest income categories - just as Gore did in 2000.