[lbo-talk] WP: US considering junking IGC for provisional govt

Brad Mayer Bradley.Mayer at Sun.COM
Mon Nov 10 12:56:32 PST 2003


"But to make tribes the basic units of central government legitimacy in Iraq would be huge reactionary transformation backwards in national organization and stability. The central politics you get from a tribal alliance is extremely weak."

Hey, they're woking on it, give 'em a chance (sick chuckle).

But given our hugely reactionary era, don't be too surprised if this ends up as the result, regardless of stated intentions.

"The cut bait and forget about it solution would be perfectly possible right after the election, though."

"If they are already planning it, though, I wonder why they made Bush give that National Endowment for Democracy speech."

I'd guess because they aren't planning on it, before or after Bush's reelection. They are on track for a successful reflation of the US bubble economy, which never went away, so Baby will be in the converse position of his Daddy: a "good economy" and a lousy low-grade war. I'm betting on the economy, plus whatever election shenanigans the Bush Gang will try to pull off. I don't put much hope in "the democracy".

We might be surprised at the Bush/Cheney/Neocon staying power in the Middle East. After all, there is no real opposition to the policy (for either Iraq or Israel) among the rulers or the masses here in the US, so why cut and run. But I'd be overjoyed to be wrong on this, and watch them run yelping, tail between legs.

-Brad Mayer



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