CONTACT: Mark Weisbrot, 202-746-7264 Todd Tucker, 202-302-2817
Thursday, November 13, 2003
Another Lost Decade for Latin America? FTAA Not Likely to Help Reverse the Region's 25-year Economic Failure
On the eve of the FTAA Ministerial Meeting in Miami, all sides hope that a new commercial agreement for the 34 participating countries will help promote growth in the Americas. However, there has been little notice that the policy reforms which began in the early 1980's have ushered in a 25-year period of economic failure.
"We now have another half-decade, even including optimistic projections for next year's growth, of terrible economic failure in Latin America," said Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "This follows a 20-year period of very little growth that was the worst in more than 100 years, even including the years of the Great Depression."
"And there is no indication that the negotiators are taking into account the vital need to restore economic growth in Latin America," he added.
CEPR released a new paper today - "Another Lost Decade?: Latin America's Growth Failure Continues in the 21st Century" -- based on the first four years of data for the current decade (2000-2003), with the IMF's latest projections for 2004. Among the findings:
This paper finds that:
· For the first 5 years of the current decade, 2000-2004, per capita GDP in Latin America is expected to grow by 0.2 percent annually, or about 1 percent for the whole period.
· This continues a long period of economic failure: for the prior 20 years, 1980- 1999, the region grew by only 11 percent (in per capita terms) over the whole period.
· By comparison, for the two decades from 1960-1979, Latin America experienced per capita GDP growth of 80 percent.
· The current decade will not be a success by any reasonable measure: to match the performance of the 1960-79 period would require annual per capita growth of 5.9 percent for the remainder of the decade. Most economists would view this outcome as nearly impossible. Even to achieve the slow growth of the 1990s would require annual per capita growth of 2.6 percent for the second half of the decade.
· There is reason to believe that growth in the near future, including 2004, may be worse than anticipated. Among these reasons are current weaknesses in the U.S. and several of the larger Latin American economies.
Dr. Weisbrot is available for interviews about the Latin American growth slowdown and other issues involved in the FTAA negotiations, including intellectual property and market access. He will be in Miami from November 14-22, and participating in various forums, including the Americas Trade and Sustainable Development Forum (ATSDF) on Monday, November 17. Please contact Todd Tucker at 202-302-2817 or <mailto:tucker at cepr.net>tucker at cepr.net for availability. Dr. Weisbrot can also be reached at 202-746-7264 in both Washington and Miami.
The full paper, "Another Lost Decade?: Latin America's Growth Failure Into the 21st Century," by Mark Weisbrot and David Rosnick is available at:
<http://www.cepr.net/another_lost_decade.htm>http://www.cepr.net/another_lost_decade.htm.
Or in PDF format at: <http://www.cepr.net/another_lost_decade.pdf>http://www.cepr.net/another_lost_decade.pdf
The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives.
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Todd Tucker International Programs Center for Economic and Policy Research 1621 Connecticut Ave., NW; Suite 500 Washington, DC 20009 Phone: 202-293-5380, ext. 213 Fax: 202-588-1356 tucker at cepr.net www.cepr.net