[lbo-talk] Other social indicators for economic collapse

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

Doug:
> I think crime rates respond only slowly to economic turns. But there
> are lots of things that respond more quickly. Suicide rates rise,
> death rates in general rise. Probably more psychological problems
> too. Sustained unemployment takes a nasty physical and mental toll.
> But such indicators are generally reported infrequently and with a
> lag, so it'll be a while before we'll be able to confirm it.
> 
The criminologist Dane Archer argues that wars, especially aggressive
one, cause increase in violent crime rates in the aggressor nation.  His
argument is that war legitimizes violence as a means of conflict
resolution.  

If this argument is correct, separating different causes of crime
(economic downturn vs. war on Iraq) would be quite difficult in this
case, even if increases were observed.  One possibility is to examine
trends in violent crimes when the victim well knew the offender found in
the National Crime Victimization Survey, which covers both reported and
unreported crime
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cvusst.htm.

The reason is that war-induced violence is mainly a means of conflict
resolution, and thus affects predominantly people who know each other,
whereas downturn-induced violence is more likely linked to illicit
economic activity (gangs, drugs, robberies, etc), and thus directed
predominantly at strangers.  Just a thought.

Wojtek