C. Sokolowski wrote:
"The voter turnout was about the same as during the last gubernatorial election, according to the numbers you posted (about 7.4 million)."
Not true. California Secretary of State's office reports about 8.3 million votes cast this election versus 7.6 million last election (which represented a record low turnout in a California gubernatorial election, according to the Mercury News). There were 7.9 million votes on question 1 anyway and I am guessing about 7.5 million on question 2. The final numbers will be larger , I think.
Wojtek continues:
"What happened was that about 1.1 million Democratic votes (3.5 million in 2002 vs. 2.4 in 2003) went to Republicans (either AS or McClintock), as there was little net change for other parties."
No, I think the numbers do not bear you out. Davis got fewer votes in 2002 than there were "No" votes on the recall, you'll note. Even if we count Libertarians as splitting the Republican vote, that only adds 160K to Simon's 3.1 million. The Republican candidates got 4.7 million votes in this election and note that this is 350 thousand MORE than the 4.35 mil "Yes" votes on the recall.
Wojtek continues:
"Now, you can interpret these 1.1 million votes as a repudiation of DLC policy as you do, but I doubt this is the case. The socio-demographic of it (white male, lower-middle class, mostly rural) does not support such a view. My interpretation is that it was a bunch of stupid people expressing their infatuation with a celebrity and an alpha male."
Well, the Clintonista theory of this recall was that it was a "right-wing coup" where a small plurality could overwhelm the results of a general election. That theory has been completely repudiated. Note the dropdown from total votes to votes on question 1 to votes on question 2 that the numbers seem to indicate. This was not exactly an inspiring election. Schwarzenegger's negatives were rising. He should have been beatable.
I don't claim that this is a repudiation of DLC policy in favor of Republican policy. I say this is a total repudiation of DLC *politics* that left the voters with nowhere to go but into the abyss.
peace,
boddi
p.s. - note the Green numbers in the two elections. Dems sure can't blame the Greens for this one.