[lbo-talk] crazy? No, actually.

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Thu Oct 9 06:48:21 PDT 2003


Boddi:
> Not true. California Secretary of State's office reports about 8.3
> million votes cast this election versus 7.6 million last election
(which
> represented a record low turnout in a California gubernatorial
election,
> according to the Mercury News). There were 7.9 million votes on
question 1
> anyway and I am guessing about 7.5 million on question 2. The final
numbers
> will be larger , I think.

The numbers you presented did not show that - I summed the votes distributed by various candidates and they added up to the 7.4 million figure. What happened to the "missing" 0.9 million votes who reportedly cast their votes?


> No, I think the numbers do not bear you out. Davis got fewer votes
in
> 2002 than there were "No" votes on the recall, you'll note.

That does not surprise me. I think a more meaningful comparison is between Bustamente in 2003 and Davis in 2002, because they can be thought of as votes cast for a Democrat in both elections (since unlike the Repugs, Democrats put all their eggs in the Bustamente's basket in 2003). And that shows that Dems lost about 1.1 million votes between 2002 and 2003.

With that in mind, the question is whether these 1.1 vote "switch" is an expression of political discontent, or infatuation with celebrity. I think it is the latter, at least in the great majority of cases. That is to say, everything else being equal, if Schwartz were running as Democratic replacement of Davis, the Dems would have won, if he was running as a Libertarian or Green, CA would now have a Libertarian or Green governor.

I am fairly certain that the great majority of U.S.-ers are fundamentally incapable of any rational thought when facing a celebrity.

On the related subject - your comments about beating the Repugs inside the Democratic party were brilliant. Could not agree more and already sent my 2 cents do Dean.

Wojtek



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