Does anyone know the reason for the big numerical discrepancy between the Wash Post and the LA Times over the Democratic and "independent" affiliation identifications? I assume it has to do with how those were defined.
Note that there was in fact a large gender gap on the Schwarzenegger vote. I am not convinced he would have been elected in a straight gubernatorial race. These results pinpoint the organizational skill of the Republicans, both in forcing the recall and in getting a disciplined vote out to the polls.
No, I do not believe those self-serving stories about how the national Republican Party and the White House feared the recall vote and "stayed out."
---------- Original Message ---------------------------------- From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2003 10:01:27 -0400
>Gregory Geboski wrote:
>
>>The exit poll data don't show breakdowns for candidates by sex, only
>>for the recall. And if the party affiliation data were broken
>>out--well, I suspect that you would see a large gender gap in the
>>Gropenfuhrer vote.
>
>The link that Michael Pug sent to the Wash Post's exit poll page
>(duplicating one I sent several days ago) was only for the recall.
>The LA Times has more detailed data on the recall, the top three
>candidates, and the propositions at
><http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-pagea26topper9oct09155420,1,1325715.story>.
>Some highlights:
>
> recall
> % of ------------
> voters yes no Arnie Busta McClint
>
>
>Whites 72 59 41 53 27 14
>Blacks 6 21 79 18 65 8
>Latinos 11 45 55 31 55 10
>Asians 6 47 53 45 34 15
>Men 49 59 41 52 29 12
>Women 51 51 49 44 35 15
>Union house 30 48 52 42 38 14
>Nonunion house 70 58 42 51 29 13
>
>There's lots more at the URL.
>
>Doug
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