Population ageing faster than thought By Tim Colebatch Economics Editor September 3, 2003
Australia in 2051 is likely to have a million more people than previously
thought - but most of the extras will be people over 65 years old, the
Bureau of Statistics has projected.
In a dramatic revision of the nation's official population projections, the
bureau's central projection estimates that by 2051, there will be more than
five times as many Australians aged 85 and over than there are now.
> From 290,000 now, the number of those over 85 will inflate to almost 1.6
million, assuming the inexorable growth in human longevity rolls on.
In June 2002 they represented 1.4 per cent of the population and this is
expected to increase to between 6 per cent and 9 per cent of the population
in 2051.
* * * *
Hand in hand with an ageing population, the proportion of working-age Australians is expected to drop substantially. The total number of Australians aged between 15 and 64 is expected to grow from 13.2 million in 2002 to between 13.4 million and 17.7 million in 2051. But as a proportion of the total population, the number of people in this working-age bracket will fall from 67 per cent in 2002 to between 57 per cent and 59 per cent by 2051. Australia's total resident population is expected to grow from 19.7 million in June 2002 to between 23 million and 31.4 million in 2051, while by 2101 it could have nearly doubled to 37.7 million.
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