Sunday, September 21, 2003
I think the French are right in their two main stances. The US
lacks legitimacy in Iraq, and order will only be restored when
legitimacy is established. The UN can help mightily with that.
Likewise, early elections can be and should be held.
It is easy. You just slightly amend the 1925 Constitution. See
http://www.geocities.com/dagtho/iraqiconst19250321.html
Take out any authoritarian language about monarchy, replace
remaining references to the king with "Prime Minister" or
"Parliament" and make a few other minor adjustments, require that
all further changes need a 2/3s majority of both houses of
parliament, and have the Interim Governing Council approve the
changes. Announce that the first parliamentary elections will be
held under this constitution, but a new one will be drafted after
an elected government is in place. Use the electoral rules of the
last elections in the 1950s if they are broad enough. Do a quick
ad hoc voter registration in local neighborhoods using drivers
licenses and identity cards. Use the 1997 census results to
establish proportional representation for the various provinces.
And, voila--we could have elections before the end of the year
fairly easily.
In the 1925 Constitution the Upper House of Parliament is
appointed by the king and has 20 members. Instead, it should be
elected and have 19 members, one from each province. The Kurds and
Sunni Arabs will be slightly over-represented this way.
The lower house of parliament will look like this: 15% of the
seats will go to Kurds, fairly evenly split between Talabani and
Barzani's parties. They are already on the IGC, so this is not a
change. Another 15% or so of seats will go to Sunni Arabs. A lot
of these may be angry nationalists and Baath sympathizers and
Islamists. But they are only 15%, so they cannot obstruct anything
by themselves in a parliamentary situation. 60% of seats will go
to the Shiites. 75% of Basra delegates will be secularists. Most
delegates from al-Hilla and Amara will be tribal. Sistani and
al-Hakim's people will win Najaf. East Baghdad will return radical
Muqtada al-Sadr supporters, and they will have about 10% of the
seats. Again, they can't do much if this is the case. Even if they
allied with the Sunnis, they could not obstruct a 2/3s majority.
The US is being far too cautious about holding elections, because
of the bad experience in Bosnia. Iraq is not Bosnia. Here, the
problem is the illegitimacy of what is seen as a neo-colonial
government. US fears that radicals could come to power are
overblown given Iraq's ethnic diversity. The only reason not to
forge ahead is that US companies may not get as many contracts
this way. Who cares?
posted by Juan Cole at 8:59 AM