>> Brad>...nuclear destruction of Tel Aviv.
>>
>> Oy vey! Does even Podhoretz believe that w/ 200-300 nukes Israel
>> will ever face any threat from an Arab state acquiring them?
>> Remember Osirak?
>
> Oh. The nukes will not be delivered by an Arab *state*. Damascus,
> Cairo, and Baghdad may, however, barbeque in response...
>
>
> Brad DeLong
Do you seriously think that is even a remote possibility?
If deterrence works against a state using its own delivery device - as you seem to believe, I am not so confident - then why doesn't it work against a state using a terrorist proxy, which is in effect just another delivery system, and one which would be very quickly uncovered. Maybe - this is pretty far out - Cairo could use terrorists in the hope that Tel Aviv would mistakenly retaliate against Damascus. So, if we go out on a wild limb, we have a fraction of full deterrence against terrorism - but is it a small fraction, and isn't the full deterrence supposed to be infinite???
Thiago